中国经济增长报告（2009～2010）

中国目前正处于一个具有重大历史意义的承前启后、继往开来的时期。人均GDP超过3000美元，突破了“贫困陷阱”，超过了中高收入国家的下限；从国际上看，2008年9月以来爆发的国际金融危机，可能导致各个主要经济大国的分野。本书以上述两大背景为基础分析了下面三个问题：一是2009～2010年中国与世界的经济增长，结论是2009年中国经济已基本摆脱了外部冲击的影响，逐步回到了正常增长轨道；2010年的中国经济将继续向好。世界经济2009年的恢复也好于预期，2010年将逐步走出危机。二是中国各省区市1990～2007年的可持续发展评价，基本结论是，在经济高速增长的同时，经济增长的质量不断提高，各地的可持续发展机制也得以强化。我们选取四组三级共60个左右的指标进行分析，经过测算，1990～2007年，全国可持续发展水平整体上升了193%，当然各地区之间差距还很大。三是中国的城市化与经济增长的关系研究，有实证研究表明，城市化水平与单位资本GDP间的相关系数高达0.85。原因是人口和资源的空间集聚产生了规模收益递增的效应。对于工业化的城市，聚集效应更明显，因为知识和新技术在交流、竞争和传播等方面效率更高，城市运行成本低（因公用设施密集），产出效率高。可以观察到，以东亚为主的新兴经济体走的正是以大城市圈为特征的、围绕工业化而展开城市化的路子。未来一段时期，中国的城市化将不断承担起推动经济增长的重任，我们测算的结果表明，中国目前正处在加速的城市化进程中，它将与不断现代化的工业一起成为支撑中国经济的支柱。

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总报告

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经济增长

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中国经济可持续发展评价体系

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城市化与经济增长专题

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书名：	中国经济增长报告（2009～2010）
英文名：	ANNUAL REPORT ON CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH （2009-2010）
作者：	张平刘霞辉袁富华张自然
I S B N：	978-7-5097-1293-1
丛书名：	宏观经济蓝皮书订阅
关键词：	城市化经济增长可持续发展
出版日期：	2010-03-01