2009年中国经济形势分析与预测
书 名： 2009年中国经济形势分析与预测
英 文 名： ECONOMY OF CHINA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST （2009）
作 者： 陈佳贵 汪同三 刘树成
I S B N： 978-7-5097-0489-9
丛 书 名：
经济蓝皮书
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关 键 词： 经济分析 经济预测 中国 2009
出版日期： 2009-01-01
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中文摘要
本书是在中国社会科学院经济学部“中国经济形势分析与预测”课题组召开的“中国经济形势分析与预测2008年秋季座谈会”的基础上，由政府部门、科研团体、高等院校等各方专家、学者共同撰写的关于中国经济形势的权威著作。
复杂多变的国际、国内形势，使得2008年中国经济的发展经受了考验与挑战。南方雨雪冰冻和四川汶川地震等重大自然灾害，都使得灾区的生产生活遭受重大损失，对经济产生了不利的影响；同时，由美国次贷危机而引发的金融风暴不断在全球蔓延，世界经济面临衰退的风险，各种不确定因素对中国经济产生了不利的影响。
面对瞬息万变的经济形势，专家作出了权威的分析。本书分为综合预测篇、政策分析篇、财政金融篇、专题研究篇、台港澳经济篇及国际背景篇，从宏观及微观经济层面，运用定量与定性相结合的方法，对2008年中国经济形势特别是面临当前全球性金融风暴可能出现的问题进行了深入的分析，并且提出了未来走势的预测与对策建议。
抗震救灾的胜利以及北京奥运会的成功举行，用事实证明了改革开放30年中国所取得的巨大成就。中国有抵御世界金融危机的基础、空间和能力，只要采取有效措施，积极应对就可以保持未来中国经济健康发展。专家预计2008年中国经济依然可以达到9.8%左右的高增长率，这一增长速度与改革开放以来30年年均增长速度相当。同时相信综合运用多种政策工具，把握宏观调控的重点、节奏和力度，就能使中国经济在2009年保持速度较快增长、价格涨幅趋缓、结构有所改善的良好态势。
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CommonID:DIR_11333955,ID:1333955,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:117894,name:中国经济形势分析与预测,ShortName:null,SubName:——2008年秋季报告,EnTitle:Analysis and Forecast of China’s Economic Situation,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:——Report in the Autumn of 2008,Level:0,BookId:1332836,AbstractCH:
2008年，美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机不断发展，加之国内突发自然灾害，对中国经济发展产生不利影响。本文对国民经济主要指标分别进行了预测，得出宏观形势上的判断：2008年我国国民经济增长速度将有所放缓，2009年GDP增长率虽然将继续有所回落，但仍有望保持9.3%左右的较快增长。在新形势下要把促进经济平稳较快发展作为当前宏观调控的重点，并要抓住机遇转变经济发展方式。要实施适度扩张的财政政策和灵活审慎的货币政策，减缓和抵御外部冲击造成的不利影响，积极扩大内需，促进经济平稳较快发展。
,AbstractEN:
As the global crisis incurred by the subprime mortgage crisis of the United States is deteriorating and natural disasters occurred in China，Chinese economy has suffered adverse impacts. In this article，the primary indicators on the national economy have been forecasted and a judgment is made on the macroeconomic situation：China’s national economy growth will slow down in 2008，and China’s GDP growth will continually fall back but with a pretty high growth of around 9.3% in 2009. The author puts forward to stressing on promoting stable and pretty high development in economy for the current macroeconomic control，and seizing opportunities to change the economic development modes. Finally，the author proposes some policy advice such as implementing a moderately expanding fiscal policy，and flexible and prudent monetary policy to relieve and withstand the adverse external impacts，taking measures to expand the domestic demand and promoting the stable and pretty high development in economy.
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本文从经济增长速度、工业与农业发展状况、固定资产投资状况、消费与出口情况等角度对当前宏观经济发展的特点进行阐述，提出关注经济增长速度与通货膨胀压力等经济运行中的问题。但我国经济快速发展的基本面没有改变，对于经济增长速度既应该高度重视，又不要反应过度；还不能轻易放松对通货膨胀的警惕。要积极处理好经济增速、农民增收和理顺资源要素价格与控制通货膨胀之间的关系。本文对2008年及2009年的相关经济数据作了科学预测，并在此基础上提出积极的财政政策、适度放松的货币政策、转变经济增长方式、扩大内需、理顺资源性产品价格及维护股市与房市健康发展六个方面的对策与建议。
,AbstractEN:
It analyzes the features of the current macroeconomic development from the perspectives of the economic growth rate，industrial and agricultural development，investments in fixed assets，consumption and export，and puts forward to paying attention to economic operation problems including economic growth rate and inflation pressure. But China’s fundamentals for rapid economic development haven’t changed. We should pay enough attention to the economic growth rate but not overreact：it is not the time to reduce the attention to inflation. It is required to well deal with the relationship among economic growth，farmers’ increase of income，price of resource elements，and control of inflation. The author makes a scientific forecast with the economic data concerning 2008 and 2009 and based on this puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from six perspectives，i.e. positive fiscal policy，moderately loosened monetary policy，changing the economic growth modes，expanding the domestic demand，correcting the resource product price，maintaining the sound development of the stock market and the real estate market.
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综合预测篇
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政策分析篇
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财政金融篇
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专题研究篇
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台港澳经济篇
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国际背景篇
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