英国发展报告（2022～2023）
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中文摘要
2022～2023年，受国际和国内负面因素的双重裹挟，英国内外政策的波动加剧。2022年下半年，英国政治经历了两易首相的“混乱期”。接替约翰逊党首和首相之职的特拉斯由于冒进的财政政策被迫辞职，执政仅49天，成为英国史上执政时间最短的首相。作为保守党内讧的“幸运儿”，苏纳克成为新一任英国首相，其务实主义政策使英国政治经济乱局得以暂时缓解。然而，苏纳克执政并未逆转保守党的颓势。保守党在下次大选中惨败的可能性很大，苏纳克很有可能成为另一位“短命”首相。
在国内政治层面，英国政党政治暂时进入了2024年大选前的“平静期”，但“平静”背后潜藏着较大的不确定性，英国各政党正逼近新一轮权力洗牌。苏纳克领导的保守党政府在外交上取得了一定进展，但在最关乎2024年大选选情的经济和民生方面乏善可陈，败局之势愈加凸显。斯塔默领导的工党呈现明显的上升势头，在2023年的地方议会选举和几次议会补选中以绝对优势击败保守党。为了在2024年大选中稳操胜券，工党发布了详细的政策纲领，但其中一些有雄心同时也颇具争议的政策（比如绿色繁荣计划）受到了公众质疑和保守党攻讦。自由民主党持续显示出复苏迹象，未来有望与工党进一步展开合作。苏格兰民族党正面临近年来最严重的政治困境，不但未能实现举行第二次独立公投的夙愿，而且深陷丑闻漩涡，民意基础受到严重削弱。如果新任领导人不能成功应对该党目前所面临的挑战，可能将影响苏格兰的权力格局乃至整个英国的政党政治版图。
在外交与安全层面，苏纳克宣称要回归实用主义，更加重视欧盟与“全球南方”，但跟随美国高调介入乌克兰危机和向印太倾斜仍是其重点。不同于约翰逊和特拉斯，苏纳克展现了其技术官僚精于细节和脚踏实地的风格，取得了一系列外交进展，巩固了英美特殊关系，改善了英欧关系，在“印太倾斜”上也有所进展。中英关系在高层互动中呈现回温势头。双边贸易和投资稳步增长，英国再次成为中企在欧投资的第一大目的地国，但由于受美国和保守党党内右翼对华强硬派掣肘，苏纳克政府很难逆转近些年的强硬对华政策。在英国经济低迷和通胀高企的情势下，英国的“中等强国”困境凸显，苏纳克政府因实力不足而捉襟见肘，被迫收缩外交雄心（比如削减海外援助、气候政策倒退）。
在经济层面，面对高企的通货膨胀和持续增长的公共债务，苏纳克政府的“新政”作用有限，宏观经济下行压力和诸多内外部风险仍然持续增加。为了控通胀和稳经济，苏纳克政府启动多项改革措施，英格兰银行实施多轮加息紧缩货币政策。但由于劳动力市场短缺、后脱欧阶段英欧经贸摩擦、“全球英国”战略推动有限、国内产业竞争力持续下降等因素叠加，苏纳克政府的“新政”举措反而给英国经济带来更多不确定性。从长期来看，受外部地缘政治经济风险冲击和内部高通胀的影响，英国经济无论是在宏观经济和国际贸易方面，还是在产业发展和民生改善方面均面临不同程度的挑战。相比其他发达经济体，英国经济前景显得更加扑朔迷离。
在社会文化层面，新冠疫情和英国脱欧的负面影响逐渐消退，英国教育呈现向好之势，但英国社会依然受到多重危机困扰。在过去一年里，英国高等教育领域持续发展：越来越多的英国大学将以ChatGPT为代表的人工智能技术应用在教学活动中；英国大学本土学生和国际学生人数持续增长，已经恢复至新冠疫情之前的人数水平；随着“温莎框架”协议后英欧关系的和解，英国终于以“准成员国”的身份重返“地平线欧洲”计划，使英国科研人员重新有资格申请“地平线欧洲”计划的科研项目资助。然而，在社会领域，苏纳克政府依然面临诸多棘手的社会危机，例如国民医疗服务体系（NHS）危机、生活成本危机、难民危机等，引发英国公众对保守党执政的更多不满，保守党执政前景更加堪忧。
同时，英国仍希望借助自身的科技实力和文化软实力维持大国地位，延缓衰落。英国政府持续推进人工智能战略，以期提高其国际竞争力、话语权和影响力，但在资金、治理等方面仍存在明显制约；查尔斯三世即位后力图塑造更为“现代”、更为“精简”的英国王室，在气候环保等领域积极参与公共事务。然而这些努力能否成功并延续英国王室在英国社会生活中的影响力，有待进一步观察。
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