中国与海湾阿拉伯国家关系发展报告（2021）
中文摘要
《中国与海湾阿拉伯国家关系发展报告（2021）》对2019～2020年中国与海湾阿拉伯国家的双边关系进行了整体梳理，并结合重点及专门领域开展了深入分析，构建了“经纬式”的分析框架，即以国别为“经”，以领域为“纬”。
本书指出，2019～2020年，中国与海湾阿拉伯国家的关系在“一带一路”倡议与地区国别发展愿景对接的框架下，持续发展，稳步迈进。尽管其间受到新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延的影响，双方在一些领域的合作一度按下“暂停键”，但总体来看，抗疫合作成为双方关系中新的亮点，夯实了双方的政治互信，为双方关系的发展按下“重启键”，继续深化多领域、多形式合作提供了宝贵的民心基础。值得一提的是，2020年恰逢地区大国沙特建国90周年，也恰逢中沙建交30周年。30年来，中沙两国超越意识形态差异，双边关系经历了能源合作伙伴、战略性友好伙伴和全面战略伙伴三个阶段，务实合作取得瞩目的成就。2019～2020年，中国“一带一路”倡议与沙特“2030愿景”目标进一步契合，既有能源合作和政治合作存量，又有安全合作与高科技合作增量，具有全球性与全面性的特征。此外，中国与阿联酋、卡塔尔等地区活跃国家之间的多领域合作也都取得了新的进展。即便是也门在国内政局动荡以及新冠肺炎疫情影响下经济发展愈发困难，中国与也门的经贸合作依旧实现了数量增长，中也人文交流则发展出了线上互动这一新形式。
在中国与海湾阿拉伯国家双边关系的重点领域方面，2019～2020年，双方能源贸易保持着稳定的发展态势，签署了多项能源合作协议与项目，呈现合作领域多维度拓展、合作格局多元化走向等特征。在基础设施建设合作方面，基于中国基建外交的顶层设计日益成熟、海湾阿拉伯国家的发展规划与中国提出的“一带一路”倡议高度契合以及中国与地区组织形成多边合作机制，中国基建企业在该地区获得潜在发展机遇。在人文交流方面，双方依循官民并行的路径：官方机构根据顶层设计和整体规划，承担着推进政府间文化合作机制化、打造文化交流品牌、促进思想交流与对话、探索民心相通新路径等任务；民间力量依托多元主体开展的人文交流更具包容性和灵活性。在新冠肺炎疫情的背景下，推动构建中阿卫生健康共同体和“健康丝绸之路”正成为中国与海湾阿拉伯国家人文交流的新任务。此外，形式多样、内容丰富的媒体交流合作是中国人民同海湾阿拉伯国家人民相互了解的重要窗口，夯实了中阿友好合作、构建中阿命运共同体的社会基础。
2019年，全球经济放缓，海湾阿拉伯国家除阿联酋外，实际GDP增长率均出现不同程度下降。然而，大部分海湾阿拉伯国家的营商环境在2019年有不同程度的提升，其中最明显的是沙特。进入2020年后，新冠肺炎疫情肆虐与石油价格走低给海湾阿拉伯国家经济带来双重冲击，宽松的财政政策导致一些国家出现财政压力风险。此外，海湾地区的安全风险依然存在，热点事件频发，美国因素始终是其中的关键不确定性和不稳定性。中国在进入高质量发展阶段以及构建“国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”的新发展格局过程中，在发展与海湾阿拉伯国家的关系时，应对此区域的总体动向有所注意，整体把握，趋利避害，以促进地区和平、推动共同发展为根本宗旨。
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