中国与世界经济发展报告（2014）
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中文摘要
《中国与世界经济发展报告(2014)》由国家信息中心组织专家队伍编撰，对2014年国内外经济发展环境、宏观经济发展趋势、经济运行中的主要矛盾、产业经济和区域经济热点、宏观调控政策的取向进行了系统分析预测，内容涵盖了10大宏观经济领域、5大重点行业、6大经济地区、4大世界经济体，并对国际贸易、国际货币、国际金融、国际大宗商品、国际油价的走势进行了分析和预测，目的是为各级政府部门、企业、科研院所和大专院校开展经济形势分析预测和政策分析提供较为系统、全面的决策参考资料。 国家信息中心专家认为，2013年，全球经济增长出现分化，发达国家经济改变前两年的低迷状态，复苏速度有所加快，新兴经济体增长态势则继续减弱。美国经济在消费和房地产市场拉动下温和复苏，制造业复苏加快，制造业采购经理人指数2013年9月创2011年4月以来的新高。欧洲经济逐步从二次衰退中走出，欧债危机总体形势逐渐缓和，金融市场趋于稳定，欧洲经济开始进入恢复性增长阶段。日本经济在安倍经济学刺激下出现加速复苏势头。主要新兴国家经济全面减速，巴西、印度、俄罗斯经济严重失速，通货膨胀严重，陷入滞胀的困扰。 报告认为，中国经济发展仍然处于重要战略机遇期，改革红利不断释放，科技创新能力逐步提高，国内需求扩大和供给改善潜力巨大，但也不能不看到经济中存在严重的结构性问题。因此，2014年中国经济增速将以稳为主，重在加快改革、结构调整和转型升级，宏观调控的政策取向仍将是稳增长、调结构和促改革，改革和结构调整力度都将加大，增长质量将明显提高。综合各种因素预测，2014年中国经济将增长7.5%，投资增速略有放慢，消费增速平稳，净出口增速将有较大上升，居民消费价格上涨2.7% 左右 。 报告建议，2014年应坚持稳增长的宏观调控政策总基调，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策；促进改革和产业升级，着力激发各类企业的自主增长活力；推动收入分配体制改革，夯实消费增长基础；以上海自由贸易区建设为契机，不断探索改革开放的新模式；下决心从体制上化解产能过剩问题和地方债务风险问题，消除经济发展的潜在风险。
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