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| 书 名： | 中国周边安全形势评估:2012 | ||||
| 英 文 名： | China’s Regional Security Environment Review：2012 | ||||
| 作 者： | 张洁 钟飞腾 | ||||
| I S B N： | 978-7-5097-3064-5 | ||||
| 丛 书 名： | 国际战略研究丛书 订阅 | ||||
| 关 键 词： | 国际形势 研究报告 2012 国家安全 中国 | ||||
| 出版日期： | 2012-01-01 | ||||
中文摘要
报告总结了2011年中国周边安全的五种变化，并对2012年的两大安全战略走势进行了研判。报告的最大特色在于，以影响中国周边安全环境变革的两项最大因素——中国自身的变革以及美国的新亚洲战略——为依托，分析美国以雁型的方式展开其在亚洲的战略部署，并突出在美国的带动下其同盟体系的互动如何影响中国的周边战略环境。报告预测，2012年的中国周边安全形势存在不确定性加大的态势，这对各国领导人的政治掌控能力、外交决策部门的反应能力以及战略界的情报分析能力，都是一项严峻的考验。
文章列表
自20世纪90年初起，周边的范围逐渐扩展至包括日本、中亚独立国家以及俄罗斯。周边范围的扩大不仅是地理意义上的，也体现了中国经济利益的亚洲化，更重要的是中国对世界秩序的理解更加务实。随着海洋权益的增加，以及美国加强对亚洲的投入，中国周边的内涵将更加深入和厚重。
,AbstractEN:“Zhoubian” （surrounding areas） has its unique characteristic in China’s foreign policy. Since the early 1990s，China’s zhoubian has extended into Japan，Central Asia and Russia. The geographic expansion of zhoubian illustrates the Asianlization of Chinese economy. Moreover，the new “zhoubian” helps China to develop pragmatic views on world order. With maritime affairs’ increasing important in China’s international strategies，the weight of “zhoubian” will further increase under the background of the United States’return to Asia.
,KeyWords:26183,7357,215632,EKeyWords:27411,8002,215633,SubjectWords:230865,LiteratureId:2404427,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010010214_000_002,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-07-25 15:09:15.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:15:38.0,HitCount:28,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2404623,DownCount:17,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2012-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:周边的战略地位与中国外交走势,ISBN:978-7-5097-3064-5,BookTitle:中国周边安全形势评估:2012,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:周边的战略地位与中国外交走势,_RowNo:4本文通过统计2000～2011年中国周边的28个国家的军费开支数据，运用SPSS统计分析软件，从定量分析的角度透视了中国的周边安全状况。在分析中，首先透过军费开支波动情况、增长幅度和变动趋势分析了周边国家的军事战略发展动向，探究了周边国家对中国的安全认知情况，继而借助于军费区位间差异图分析了美国的亚太战略布局态势，最后根据现有数据预测了周边国家未来军费开支的增长趋势。
,AbstractEN:The article statistics on the China Surrounding twenty-eight countries’ military expenditure data from 2000 to 2010 and analysis them through SPSS，so that could find out the situation of the China Surrounding security. The article interprets the military strategy development tendency，and then probes into the surrounding countries’ Safety Cognitions to China and the U.S. Asia’s strategy.In the end，forecasts the military expenditure rising tendency of the China’s Surrounding areas in the future.
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,AbstractEN:The situation of the Korean Peninsula seems to be gradually cooling down this year，showing the basic characteristics that the changes are cyclical and chain-reacting. A new thinking and new way is actively promoted by Chinese government to ease tensions and settle the problem on the Korean Peninsula peacefully and equitably. As the starting point，China advocated strengthening the trade and economic cooperation with the DPRK and put it in practice. Through the join of Russia，this new thinking is being made considerable initial success. However，as the arrival of 2012，the important turning point in the cyclical evolution，the Korean Peninsula is still facing some important variables in their immediate future.
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,AbstractEN:The strong shock brought about by The Great East Japan Earthquake spread to the fields of Japanese economy，political affairs，society，culture and thinking as well as to international relations in the Asia-Pacific region to some extent. Close or distant of Japanese foreign relationship was clearly manifested through its choice of accepting or refusing foreign aid in its disaster relief. This is an inheritance of its set mode of concentric circle of foreign relation. Another shock followed in the Japanese political world. The foreign policy strategy of the Yoshihiko Noda cabinet transcends that of the past government. The Japanese foreign policy after the dual shock will continue to focus on be friend distant states while attacking those nearby. It will strengthen the policy of engagement and containment towards China.
,KeyWords:7576,7806,215710,EKeyWords:22669,176304,215711,SubjectWords:230880,LiteratureId:2404455,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010010214_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-07-25 15:09:15.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:15:38.0,HitCount:19,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2404627,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2012-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:继承还是超越？——双重地震后日本对外关系走向,ISBN:978-7-5097-3064-5,BookTitle:中国周边安全形势评估:2012,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:继承还是超越？——双重地震后日本对外关系走向,_RowNo:7围绕南海争端，中越、中菲的双边摩擦持续增加，以美国为首的域外国家也纷纷介入争议，对中国形成合围之势。虽然中国试图通过经济让利、发布白皮书等多种方式宣称自己和平解决南海争端的立场，但是成效有限。那么为何在现行国际体系存在的诸多国家间的领土争端中，南海问题受到如此关注？本文认为，国际社会关注的是，中国获取南海有争议领土领海的方式——是和平解决还是武力夺取。对于世界而言，中国解决海上争端的方式将是检验中国崛起路径选择的试金石。
,AbstractEN:The bilateral frictions between Sino-Vietnam，China and Philippines have been increasing on the disputes of South China Sea. United States，as well as some others countries outside the region，involved into this area and urged the formation of the encirclement to China. Chinese government has claimed the standpoint of the peaceful settlement of the South China Sea disputes，but the effort is limited. In the future，the South China Sea disputes would continue to be the most important factor that affecting China’s security of neighboring environment. For the world，the way that China would resolve maritime disputes is the touchstone to inspect the path selection of China’s rise.
,KeyWords:7357,21085,119400,EKeyWords:8002,8913,215712,SubjectWords:230881,LiteratureId:2404467,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010010214_000_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-07-25 15:09:15.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:15:38.0,HitCount:40,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2404628,DownCount:14,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2012-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:南海争端：中国和平崛起的试金石？,ISBN:978-7-5097-3064-5,BookTitle:中国周边安全形势评估:2012,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:南海争端：中国和平崛起的试金石？,_RowNo:8自2011年7月提出了“新丝绸之路”计划开始，美国已召集相关国家召开多次会议，积极推动此计划。在美国宣布从阿富汗撤军的背景下，美国倡导“新丝绸之路”计划表明美国阿富汗战略的转变。“新丝绸之路”计划为南亚国家提供了发展机遇，但也面临着巨大的挑战。美国希望印度在“新丝绸之路”计划中发挥中心作用，对印度的借重上升。美国版“新丝绸之路”计划对中国既是机遇也是挑战，但挑战大于机遇。
,AbstractEN:The United States of America has convened several conferences since the New Silk Road Plan（NSRP） was proposed in June 2011.Against the background of withdrawing from Afghanistan，the NSRP indicates the shift of the United States’ Afghanistan policy. The NSRP provides opportunities for South Asian countries，but also faces severe challenges. The US looks forward to working with its partners to realize the vision of the New Silk Road，wants a central role of India，relies on India’s support. However，the NSRP is a double edge for China.
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,AbstractEN:On 30 September 2011，Myanmar President Thein Sein announced that the Chinese-invested Myitsone dam would be halted during his tenure，highlighting the predicament and embarrassment of China’s overseas investment and China’s neighboring diplomacy.With Myanmar’s increasingly role in China’s energy security，its gradual political reform and its improved relations with the United States，Japan，India and other powers，the asymmetric relations between Myanmar and China have undegone some subtle changes.This will bring enormous challenges to China’s strategic interests in Myanmar.So，China urgently needs to adjust its policies toward Myanmar.At the same time，Chinese overseas investment enterprises should also draw some lessons from this.
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,AbstractEN:There are some new changes in the geopolitical map of Central Asian region in 2011.The political system of Kyrgyzstan takes place in the framework of a parliamentary representative democratic republic.With the time of withdrawing military forces from Afghanistan，the integrations dived by Russia and the USA makes competition of influence in the Central Asia between two countries become more fierce.Non-traditional threats to security and stabilization in central Asian countries are looming large.SCO’ cooperation in security field has achieved initial success.
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,AbstractEN:In 2011，The U.S.policy makers put forward a strategic concept about America’s Asia-Pacific Century，which implied the U.S.’ new strategic goal and a plan devised for regional framework. In order to achieve new strategic expansion and draw up new blueprint of both trade and power in Asia-Pacific，the U.S.strengthened the trans-Pacific regional integration through utilizing APEC and TPP effectively.The admission of U.S. and Russia in East Asia Summit this year also will affect the construct of regional framework in Asia-Pacific in the future.
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