2009年中国社会形势分析与预测
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中文摘要
本报告是中国社会科学院“社会形势分析与预测”课题组的2008年年度分析报告（社会蓝皮书），由中国社会科学院社会学研究所组织来自研究机构的专家、高校学者以及国家政府研究人员撰写。
本报告立足于国家权威的统计数据或严格科学的社会调查，全面跟踪2008年中国社会发展进程，密切关注2008年中国社会民生的改善和国家相关政策的走向，深入解读2008年国内国际经济社会领域的重大事件和热点问题对中国未来发展的影响。
本报告发现，2008年，中国在面临国际金融危机以及国内发生诸多重大事件的特殊形势下，社会发展仍然取得了显著进展。经济增长虽然出现减缓趋势，但仍处于平稳较快发展的区间。全国粮食产量达到历史最高水平，粮食安全基本得到保障，物价明显回落。居民收入增长减缓，但城乡之间居民收入增长率拉大的势头出现转折。劳工权益获得更多保障，劳动关系协调取得成果。社会保障事业全面推进，教育发展更加注重公平。反腐败力度明显加大，官员问责风暴引起世界瞩目。网络舆论发展迅速，对诸多重大公共事件的处理产生了扭转方向的影响。青年一代通过积极参与社会发展进程展现出新的形象，全社会公民意识和志愿精神快速发育。
本报告指出，国际金融危机对中国社会将产生较为深远的影响，城乡居民消费需求增长受到影响，就业压力增大，农民工和大学生就业形势趋紧，劳动争议事件增加。
本报告认为，中国社会发展处在新的转折关头。从目前的种种迹象来看，2008年是中国改革开放30年来极不平凡的一年，既面临前所未有的挑战，也面临新的发展机遇，这是一个新的界碑。面对挑战，中国力挽狂澜，计划投入4万亿元人民币，大力促进经济增长，努力破除城乡二元格局，开拓中国未来新的发展前景。
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2008年是中国改革开放30周年，在北京成功举办了世界瞩目的第29届奥运会，但也遭遇汶川特大地震。特别是由美国次贷危机演变成的国际金融危机，对中国产生深刻影响。中国经济仍在高位运行，但增长速度下降明显；粮食生产取得历史性突破，物价上涨趋势得到控制并明显回落；城乡居民生活水平继续提升，但收入增长速度放缓；就业形势有所趋紧，农民工返乡和大学生就业难问题比较突出。中国力挽狂澜、加大投入，确保经济社会平稳快速发展。中国从教育、医疗、社会保障、公共服务等各方面，开始着力破除城乡二元结构，2008年将是中国社会发展进入一个新的历史阶段的标志性的一年。
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2008 marked the 30th anniversary of China’s Reform and Opening Up. The 29th Summer Olympic Games was successfully held in Beijing，attracting worldwide attention. China，however，suffered from unprecedented Wenchuan Earthquake and is deeply affected by the international financial crisis caused by the meltdown in the U.S.subprime mortgage market. The speed of the Chinese economic growth remains high while its growth rate declines evidently. Grain production gains a historical breakthrough while the upward trend in prices is under control and noticeably slowed down. The standard of living of urban and rural residents continued to improve，while the rate of income growth is dropping. Labor market gets some contraction，which was reflected in the returning home of the migrant workers and university graduates. Painstaking efforts have been made in the increased amount of investment to ensure a steady and speedy economic and social development. A huge move was made to eliminate the dual urban and rural structure in such areas as education，medical care，social security and public services. 2008 represented a historical turning point in a new phase of China’s social development.
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李培林，中国社会科学院社会学研究所所长、研究员
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陈光金，中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长、研究员。
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力挽狂澜 中国社会发展迎接新挑战——2008～2009年中国社会形势分析与预测总报告
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调查篇
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发展篇
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附录
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