中国房地产发展报告No.13（2016）
| 书 名： |
中国房地产发展报告No.13（2016） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S REAL ESTATE No.13 （2016）
|
| 作 者： |
李春华 王业强 尚教蔚 董昕 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5097-9071-7 |
| 丛 书 名： |
房地产蓝皮书
订阅
|
| 关 键 词： |
房地产业 投融资 土地市场 |
| 出版日期： |
2016-05-01 |
中文摘要
《中国房地产发展报告No.13（2016）》继续秉承客观公正、科学中立的宗旨和原则，追踪中国房地产市场最新动态，深度剖析市场热点，展望2016年发展趋势，谋划应对策略。全书分为总报告、土地篇、金融篇、市场篇、管理篇、区域篇、国际借鉴篇、热点篇。总报告对房地产业和房地产市场的发展态势进行全面、综合的分析，其余各篇分别从不同的角度对房地产次级市场发展、区域市场和热点问题进行深度分析。
房地产市场经过一年多的调整，2015年，商品房销售成交价格总体上涨，住宅和办公楼的销售价格涨幅较高，而商业营业用房销售价格则出现下跌；商品房销售量增幅由负转正，办公楼销售量增幅较大。房地产库存水平依然较高，但增速明显下降，商办物业的库存比住宅更为严峻。住房租金涨幅小幅收窄，明显低于住房售价涨幅，但仍高于CPI涨幅；房地产开发投资低迷，住宅投资接近零增长；开发资金来源中，销售回款明显增加，其他来源资金萎缩；土地购置面积与土地成交价款均大幅下降，但土地平均成交价格增幅高于商品房销售价格增幅；房屋新开工面积全线下降，施工面积小幅增加，仍处于库存去化期。
展望2016年，受一系列不确定和趋势性因素影响，世界经济增长形势依然不容乐观。房地产作为广义资本市场一部分，其不确定性风险必将不断提升。2008年国际金融危机以来，中国GDP增速一直处于下滑区间，2015年中国GDP增速跌破7%。2016年宏观经济持续下滑将是大概率事件，从而导致房地产价格预期进一步降低，住房需求增速减缓，对房地产市场形成向下压力。
从政策层面看，短期通过货币或财政政策刺激需求，长期将实行供给侧改革。即，一方面，围绕房地产“去库存”，继续执行宽松的财政和货币政策刺激市场需求，维持市场活跃；另一方面，围绕房地产供给侧改革，实施分类调控，以适度缓和区域分化、冷热不均现象，维持市场稳定将是2016年房地产政策基调：对于一线城市和部分需求热点二线城市，增加土地供应将是重点，同时继续实行限购政策，甚至出台相关政策，抑制一线市场过热，以防止投资需求过快增长致房价涨幅过高；多数二线和三、四线城市以刺激需求、去库存为主，购房落户、税费减免、财政补贴政策，以及教育、医疗等配套措施有望在各地全面铺开。
从市场表现看，在积极的财政政策和偏宽松的货币政策推动下，2016年房地产市场逐渐回稳：房地产投资止跌转增，开发商在一、二线市场销售旺盛推动下逐渐恢复投资信心；随着投机性需求和改善性住房需求的进一步释放，房地产销售将进一步增长；三、四线城市的房地产去库存难以取得突破性进展；随着政策刺激效应衰减，房地产销售有再次回落风险；一线和部分二线城市房价仍将持续上涨，但上涨幅度将有所减缓；二线城市房价将全面上涨，涨幅区域分化明显；三、四线城市在宽松政策推动下库存将有所减少，房地产价格跌幅逐渐收窄回稳。但从较长时期看，如果宏观经济增长继续下滑，房地产价格有可能在2017年下半年再次出现全面下滑趋势。
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文章列表
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总报告
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土地篇
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国际借鉴篇
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