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中国经济展望报告(2017)

书 名: 中国经济展望报告(2017)
英 文 名: CHINA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
作 者:  刘伟苏剑
I S B N: 978-7-5201-0357-2
关 键 词:  中国经济 经济增长 供给侧改革 经济波动
出版日期: 2017-03-01

中文摘要

本书是《中国经济展望报告》系列的第2本。本报告的主旨是对中国经济增长和波动中的一些关键问题进行分析和展望。

本报告包括上、下两篇。上篇的主题是短期经济波动分析,由主报告和两个专题报告构成。主报告利用总供求分析框架得出如下结论:2016年中国宏观经济走出通缩风险,整体运行平稳,但下行压力仍在;2017年经济整体走势将是需求、供给“双收缩”,经济增速在下滑的同时还存在“滞胀”风险、房地产市场风险、汇率风险等;为实现“调结构,控风险,稳增长”的宏观经济目标,需要供给侧改革与积极财政政策、稳健货币政策相结合。专题报告一“房地产市场”认为,宽松的货币政策直接导致了2016年房地产市场泡沫,2017年房价增速将放缓,但不会大幅下跌;房地产市场泡沫产生的深层次原因是人口流入、收入分配差距、宽松货币政策背景下的需求膨胀,与核心城市“资源禀赋”悬殊、土地信用和土地财政收益最大化目标下的房屋供给不足之间的矛盾。专题报告二“美国大选后的世界政治经济走势”认为,特朗普新政将提高美国经济增速,利率将走高,人民币贬值压力增加,但新政也存在困境,效果可能不会很大。

下篇关注供给侧及供给侧改革问题,也由主报告和两个专题报告构成。主报告分析了21世纪以来我国所有制结构变化对收入分配的影响,结果表明公有制为主体、多种经济成分共同发展的新经济体制对于促进中国经济发展、改善非农就业和城乡居民收入都有重要意义。专题报告一“能源与环境”认为,“十三五”期间,我国煤电产能严重过剩;能源消费年均增长1.5%~2%,非化石能源消费比重上升,工业用能需求趋于饱和;非煤能源投资比重将增加;煤炭进口量逐步下降,石油及天然气进口量进一步上升;煤价可能小幅上调,电价则将下降,石油、天然气价格市场化改革将继续推进。专题报告二“政府债务”认为,“十三五”期间,政府债券市场存在债券发行主体不够完整,债券利率未能充分体现市场机制,债券种类少、规模小、债券市场管理法制建设欠缺等问题;我国私人部门去杠杆不可能通过债转股、不良资产证券化来实现,最终必然是政府兜底,政府债务率将持续上升,2020年将达到最高点57.4%。

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