中国对外直接投资与国家风险报告（2017）
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中文摘要
《中国对外直接投资与国家风险报告（2017）——“一带一路”：海外建设新版图》由五部分组成，分别为总报告、宏观篇、区域篇、投资专题篇和风险专题篇。总报告对中国对外投资的总体形势、主要风险和政策建议进行了综合性、概括性阐述。总报告认为，近两年中国对外直接投资增长迅速，成为“资本净输出国”。未来投资前景良好，“一带一路”建设和拉美地区潜力巨大；与此同时，民族宗教因素、地缘政治格局变化、全球经济增长乏力与失衡三大因素相互交织，导致2016年全球国家风险水平上升，且短期内现有风险格局仍将延续。因此，中国企业在“走出去”过程中除要关注投资机会和收益外，更需注重国家风险的评估和防范，从政府、企业两个层面采取措施应对各种风险。
宏观篇对近两年来中国海外投资现状和所面临的风险进行了全面分析。从整体看，中国已经成为全球第二大对外直接投资国，投资存量超过万亿美元。租赁和商务服务业、金融业、采矿业和批发零售业投资存量规模上千亿美元；亚洲长期保持着我国对外投资首要目的地的地位；地方企业超越中央企业，成为对外非金融类投资主力军。2016年全球国家风险的最新特点表现为各地区武装冲突此消彼长、发达国家和部分新兴国家政治不确定性增加、发达国家准入审查风险增大，以及发展中国家货币持续承压。这一新型风险格局的成因包括极端宗教与恐怖主义势力外溢、民族主义和排外情绪抬头、大宗商品价格的长期低迷，以及货币政策的两极分化。
区域篇随后对 “走出去”热门区域的投资情况和风险特征进行了有针对性的梳理。从投资目的地来看，中国对“一带一路”相关国家和地区直接投资持续、快速增长；拉美地区成为新的投资热门区域，能源、农业、基础设施等行业潜力巨大。近两年“一带一路”沿线国家政治、经济和社会局势发生了深刻变化。一些完成选举的国家政局稳定，而另一些国家仍饱受战争和恐怖主义困扰。各国经济表现不一，但普遍受到大宗商品价格不振的影响。在此背景下，各区域呈现不同的国家风险特征，中东政局动荡和频繁的恐怖袭击给投资带来重大的安全威胁；中亚国家对特定行业设置准入壁垒或政策限制；拉美政局“右转”，经济持续低迷，中国投资者面临的政治风险也在逐步攀升。
投资专题篇对中国企业的海外投资形式与投资保护情况展开了深入探讨。从投资方式看，绿地投资规模增长迅速，逐步赶超欧美发达国家水平。投资前三大行业为制造业、采矿业和电力行业，80%以上的投资额流向发展中国家；海外并购规模快速增长，产业结构不断优化，对欧美成熟市场的并购正在加速，民营企业日益成为海外并购的重要参与者。双边投资保护协定是国际上最重要的投资规范、保护与促进工具。中国与部分发达国家的双边投资保护协定谈判近年来取得了一些进展，中美同意以准入前国民待遇和负面清单为基础展开实质性谈判；中国与欧盟也于2013年正式启动谈判，截至2016年10月已进行了12轮谈判。未来谈判的达成有可能加剧国内一些产业的竞争，有关中国的国际投资仲裁案件数量也有可能大幅增加。
风险专题篇对中国企业在“走出去”过程中面临的重点行业风险、新型国家风险等内容进行了详尽的解读。中国企业海外工程承包行业是我国“走出去”的重点行业，相关项目海外运作周期长，更易受到政治风险冲击和汇率波动影响。环境风险逐步成为影响中国企业海外投资收益的重大风险。环境风险诱因复杂多样，既有跨国企业环保意识淡薄、环保责任感不足等主观因素，也有东道国政策调整、法律更新等国家风险层面客观因素。2008年以来全球风险偏好呈减弱趋势，国际资本流向发达国家避险；大宗商品价格波动进一步加剧，新兴国家受到巨大负面冲击，导致我国企业海外投资面临的不确定性增加。但新兴国家汇率灵活性提高，外储充裕度不断提升，以及外债结构的不断优化有助于其更好地应对本轮外部冲击。
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总报告
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宏观篇
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区域篇
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投资专题篇
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风险专题篇
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