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中国投资发展报告(2017)

书 名: 中国投资发展报告(2017)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S INVESTMENT (2017)
作 者: 中国建银投资有限责任公司投资研究院
I S B N: 978-7-5201-0528-6
丛 书 名: 中国建投研究丛书·报告系列 订阅
关 键 词:  金融投资 境外投资 资产配置 行业投资 投资人群
出版日期: 2017-03-01

中文摘要

《中国投资发展报告(2017)》回顾了2016年我国投资发展状况,对2017年宏观经济环境及投资市场发展走势进行了预判。全书围绕投资,重点分析了宏观经济形势与资产配置、投资者的行为及策略、热点行业发展状况、中国资本跨境并购、全球货币政策分化与投资策略等问题。

《中国投资发展报告》是中国建投集团面向社会推出的年度系列化研究成果,是《中国建投研究丛书·报告系列》的重要组成部分。我们秉承客观、严谨、科学的态度,在选题角度、深度和广度方面对投资领域的相关问题进行更为深入的研究和探索,为投资界及相关人士提供有价值的参考。

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CommonID:DIR_50029697,ID:8213008,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:307771,name:2016年宏观经济形势分析与2017年展望,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:Analysis of China’s Macroeconomic Performance in 2016 and Outlook in 2017,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8212995,AbstractCH:

2016年,全球经济动荡下行,“黑天鹅”事件频发,但全球经济并未遭受严重冲击,进入低速平稳增长周期。2017年,全球经济有望在美国和新兴市场国家引领下呈现复苏格局,但增长动能依旧偏弱。2016年,中国经济在政策推动的力保下,供给侧出现平稳运行态势,较好地实现了全年经济发展目标。2017年,我国经济仍面临下行压力,若防风险措施得当,改革政策落地,政策显效,则有望实现预期增长。

,AbstractEN:

The global economy was turbulent and downward in 2016. Although Black swans happened frequently,the global economy did not suffer serious shock and entered the low speed as well as steady growth cycle. In 2017,the global economy is expected to present the recovery pattern due to the leading of the United States and emerging market countries. But growth momentum is still weak. China’s economy met the annual economic development goals under the promotion of policy,and the supply side appeared smooth running in 2016. In 2017,China’s economy will still be under the downward pressure. If the risk prevention measures are appropriate and the policy of reform works,it would achieve expected growth.

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张璐璐,经济学博士,中国建投投资研究院研究员

"},"Zhang Lulu":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-03-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2016年宏观经济形势分析与2017年展望,ISBN:978-7-5201-0528-6,BookTitle:中国投资发展报告(2017),BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2016年宏观经济形势分析与2017年展望,_RowNo:4
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2016年前3个季度货币宽松,4季度开始收紧货币。全年债券市场价格振荡上行,年末转入熊市。股票市场低位振荡,在全球主要股市中表现垫底。商品市场价格大幅上涨。外汇市场美元先弱后强,人民币贬值幅度进一步扩大。房地产市场量价齐升,价格暴涨致年末限购重启。2017年,在流动性偏紧的情况下,债券市场利率中枢上行,料价格将振荡下行。股票市场趋势性机会难现,转为结构性机会。商品市场分化明显。外汇市场美元继续走强,其他主要货币贬值概率大。房地产市场调在控政策中降温,房价高位趋稳,成交量与投资减少。因此,2017年建议增加美元、有色金属商品期货配置,降低债券配置,上半年关注原油机会,下半年关注黄金机会,同时关注股票市场结构性行情。

,AbstractEN:

Monetary easing in the first three quarters of 2016 began to tighten in the forth quarter. Throughout the year:the bond market’s price swang upward,but at the end turned into a bear market. The stock market continued drifting lower,and behaved bottom of the world’s major stock markets. Commodity market price rose sharply. In foreign exchange market,dollar went strong after weak,and RMB further expand the devaluation. Real estate market Rose on Both Volume and Price,price inflation caused the purchase restart. In 2017,the central interest rates goes upward,bonds price shocks down. Trends in the stock market is difficult to see,turns into structural opportunities. The differentiation of commodity market is obvious. In foreign exchange market,dollar continues to strengthen,but other major currencies perform devaluation. The real estate market is cooling under regulation policy,stabilized high prices,and trading volume and investment reduce. Therefore,in 2017,proposed to increase the allocation of the dollar and the non-ferrous metal commodity futures,and reduce bonds. Pay attention to the crude oil opportunity in the first half of the year,and the golden opportunity in the second half. At the same time,pay attention to the stock market’s structural opportunity.

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高彦如,金融硕士,中国建投投资研究院研究员

"},"Gao Yanru":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-03-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:大类资产:货币超发背景下的资产配置,ISBN:978-7-5201-0528-6,BookTitle:中国投资发展报告(2017),BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:大类资产:货币超发背景下的资产配置,_RowNo:5
CommonID:DIR_50029771,ID:8213016,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:307773,name:资产管理:分化、转型与变局,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:Asset Management:Differentiation,Transformation and Change,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8212995,AbstractCH:

2016年是中国经济结构调整的重要一年,实体经济复苏乏力,证券市场走势低迷,债券市场违约事件频发,资管收益呈下降趋势。监管部门出台了一系列政策法规,旨在降杠杆、堵漏洞、强风控,防范金融风险。2016年资管行业继续保持增长势头,但发展出现分化,未来分化趋势或将继续,主动管理和差异化竞争将成为资管行业发展的方向。

,AbstractEN:

2016 is an important year for China’s economic restructuring,the real economic recovery is weak,the stock market downturn,the bond market defaults frequent events,asset management income showed a downward trend. The regulator issued a series of policies and regulations aimed at reducing leverage,blocking loopholes,strong wind control,financial risk prevention. 2016 asset management industry continues to maintain growth momentum,but the development of differentiation,the future trend of differentiation or will continue,the proactive management and differentiated competition will become the direction of the development of information management industry.

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祝伟清,中国建投投资研究院副秘书长、高级研究员

"},"徐建华":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

徐建华,经济学硕士,国泰基金董事会办公室经理

"},"葛枫":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

葛枫,经济学硕士,中建投信托研究创新部研究员

"},"Zhu Weiqing":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Xu Jianhua":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Ge Feng":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-03-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:资产管理:分化、转型与变局,ISBN:978-7-5201-0528-6,BookTitle:中国投资发展报告(2017),BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:资产管理:分化、转型与变局,_RowNo:6
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受GDP增长、人口红利、资本市场、新兴投资产品等各种因素的推动,我国居民个人财富实现了快速积累,使投资人群数量快速增长,结构上实现了多元化发展。目前,我国家庭财富全球排名第3,高净值人口数量位居全球第2,仅次于美国。投资人群基本上由高净值客户、金融机构、政府、企业海外投资人构成。进入经济新常态,我国高净值人群扩充速度放缓,而超高净值人群呈现快速发展,出现“赢者通吃,大者恒大”的分化格局,催生了一大批机构投资者,其中,国内股权投资已形成“1万家+7万亿元+20万人”的市场规模。产业与资本的加速融合成为当下中国经济发展的一个重要趋势。政府的产业引导基金成为当前产融结合的主要实现路径,步入快速发展期,在规模和行业领域上呈现双拓展趋势。

,AbstractEN:

Driven by various factors of GDP growth,demographic dividend,capital market,new investment products,personal wealth of Chinese residents to achieve a rapid accumulation,which prompted the investment crowd,the number has been greatly expanded,the structure has diversified development. At present,China’s family wealth ranked third in the world,the number of high net worth crowd ranked the world’s only second only to the United States after the number of second. Investment groups are basically composed of high net worth clients,financial institutions,governments,enterprises,overseas investors. In the new economic norm,China’s high net worth population development speed in slow,and ultra high net worth population showed a rapid development,“the winner,the bigger” differentiation tendency. A large number of institutional investors come into birth,of which,the domestic equity investment has formed 10 thousand home +7 trillion yuan +20 million market size. Accelerate the integration of industry and capital,China’s economic development has become an important trend. The government’s industrial guidance fund has become the main path to realize the combination of industry and finance,and entered a period of rapid development.

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文玉春,统计分析师,美国加州大学洛杉矶分校访问学者,中国建银投资有限责任公司博士后

"},"Wen Yuchun":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-03-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:投资人群:结构、行为与策略分析,ISBN:978-7-5201-0528-6,BookTitle:中国投资发展报告(2017),BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:投资人群:结构、行为与策略分析,_RowNo:7
CommonID:DIR_50029912,ID:13547008,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:307775,name:行业投资:培育经济新动力,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:Industry Investment:Fostering New Economic Impetus,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8212995,AbstractCH:

我国产业结构处于转型升级的关键期,应关注经济新动能所在的战略性新兴产业和传统产业的升级优化,以及新技术与传统产业的跨界融合带来的投资机遇。展望2017年,投资者重点可关注的产业有:绿色环保产业在PPP大发展背景下投资机会多,重点关注环境监测、土壤治理、海绵城市、VOCs治理、污水处理等;健康养老产业关注养老服务、医疗服务、养老金融等;信息经济产业关注Fintech、车联网、区块链、人工智能、大数据、信息安全、B2B电子商务等;文化消费产业关注内容产业、新兴旅游、冰雪产业等;先进制造业关注智能装备、服务型制造、核心基础零部件、绿色制造等。

,AbstractEN:

The industrial structure of our country is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading. Investors should focus on strategic emerging industries which fostering new economic impetus,the upgrading of traditional industries,and the cross-border integration of the new technology and traditional industrial. These investment areas will brings more investment opportunities. Outlook 2017,the industry investment should focus on:in the context of the development of PPP investment opportunities,the investment of environmental protection industry should focus on environmental monitoring,soil management,sponge City,VOCs,sewage treatment,etc.;in health care industry,focusing on pension services,health care,pension finance;in Information industry,focusing on Fintech,car networking,block chain,artificial intelligence,the big data,information security,B2B e-commerce;in cultural consumption industry,focusing on the content industry,new tourism,ice and snow industry;in advanced manufacturing industry,focusing on intelligent equipment,service-oriented manufacturing,the core of basic components,green manufacturing,etc..

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邹继征,中国建投投资研究院高级研究员

"},"王申":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

王申,中国建投投资研究院研究员

"},"Zou Jizheng":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wang Shen":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-03-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:行业投资:培育经济新动力,ISBN:978-7-5201-0528-6,BookTitle:中国投资发展报告(2017),BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:行业投资:培育经济新动力,_RowNo:8
CommonID:DIR_50029978,ID:8213028,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:307776,name:境外投资:中国资本“走出去”的环境、趋势与策略,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:Overseas Investment:the Environment,Trend and Strategy of Chinese Capital Going out,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8212995,AbstractCH:

增加海外投资和开展全球资产配置已是全球资本流动的重要趋势和特征。本文重点分析中国资本“走出去”的环境、趋势和策略。就2016年中国资本海外投资的发展状况,中企海外并购面临的挑战和风险,以及2017年的投资趋势进行梳理总结。并且分别就北美、亚太、欧洲三大区域的政治形势、经济发展潜力、营商环境、主导优势产业、重点投资领域等方面展开系统分析,在投资环境利好变化中挖掘价值洼地。

,AbstractEN:

Increasing overseas investment and global asset allocation is an important trend and characteristic of global capital flows. This chapter focuses on the analysis of the environment,trend and strategy of Chinese capital. The development situation of China capital overseas investment in 2016,facing the challenges and risks of enterprises overseas acquisitions,and in 2017 the investment trend summary. And analyze the system respectively in North America,Asia Pacific,Europe’s three largest regional political situation,economic development potential and business environment,the dominant industry,the key investment areas,mining the value of depression in the positive changes in the investment environment.

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万建发,中国建投投资研究院秘书长、高级研究员

"},"王申":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

王申,中国建投投资研究院研究员

"},"文玉春":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

文玉春,博士,统计分析师,中国建银投资有限责任公司博士后

"},"高彦如":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

高彦如,金融硕士,中国建投投资研究院研究员

"},"Wan Jianfa":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wang Shen":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wen Yuchun":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Gao Yanru":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-03-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:境外投资:中国资本“走出去”的环境、趋势与策略,ISBN:978-7-5201-0528-6,BookTitle:中国投资发展报告(2017),BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:境外投资:中国资本“走出去”的环境、趋势与策略,_RowNo:9
CommonID:DIR_50030041,ID:8213032,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:307777,name:2017年投资需要关注的几个问题,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:Investors Need to Pay Attention to Several Issues in 2017,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8212995,AbstractCH:

2016年,投资市场被认为是不确定性较多的一年,中国A股市场熔断、英国“脱欧”、特朗普当选等一系列事件超乎市场的预期,投资机会变得更加难以把握。展望2017年,投资依然存在很多的不确定性。美联储加息,全球货币政策分化;美股泡沫膨胀,中国房地产调控;人民币贬值压力延续,对外投资面临挑战;中国经济高杠杆,债转股将全面推进。所有这些都必须引起投资者的高度重视。做好2017年投资,必须要提高学习能力、政策解读能力以及分析判断能力,从种种不确定性中寻找确定性。

,AbstractEN:

The investment market in 2016 is considered to be a year of uncertainty. China’s A-share market A fuse,the British left the EU,Trump was elected president of the United States,and so a series of events,beyond the market expectations. Investment becomes more difficult to grasp. Outlook 2017,investment is still facing a lot of uncertainty. The Fed rate hike,global monetary policy differentiation;stocks bubble,China real estate regulation;RMB devaluation pressures continue,foreign investment challenges;Chinese economic leverage,debt to equity swap. All of these must be highly valued by investors. Do a good job in 2017 investment,we must rely on improving learning ability,policy interpretation,as well as the ability to analyze and judge,from a variety of uncertainties in the search for certainty.

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张志前,经济学博士,高级经济师,中国建投投资研究院副秘书长、高级研究员

"},"Zhang Zhiqian":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-03-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2017年投资需要关注的几个问题,ISBN:978-7-5201-0528-6,BookTitle:中国投资发展报告(2017),BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2017年投资需要关注的几个问题,_RowNo:10
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