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    欧盟经济 艰难复苏,面临挑战

    摘要

    2016年欧盟经济维持复苏形势,但经济增速略显乏力,尤其表现在欧元区成员国方面。对外贸易与投资均呈现出不同程度的收紧,欧盟参与经济全球化的积极性正在下降。在劳动力市场有稍许改善的同时,欧元区财政赤字和债务率依然高悬。通货膨胀率虽未达到欧洲央行预期,但正处于上升通道。此外,在金融市场方面,欧盟股票市场相对繁荣,汇率存在贬值压力,市场利率持续走低。预计2017年欧洲央行继续实行量化宽松政策,欧元区通胀率将进一步上升并在一定程度上激发市场活力,但债务率高悬将依然无法得到解决。伴随逆全球化思潮、部分国家大选、银行业危机等一系列不确定因素,在迷茫和慌乱中实现经济增长注定是2017年欧盟经济所面临的大背景。

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    Abstract

    The European economy continued the trend of recovery in 2016,but the growth was feeble with a moderate rate,especially in the Eurozone. The EU showed different degrees of decrease in its foreign trade and outbound investment and its enthusiasm towards economic globalization was declining. Although the situation of the labor market improved slightly,the fiscal deficit and debt ratio still remained at a very high level. The inflation rate was indicative of an upward trend,despite the fact that it was still within the expectation of the European Central Bank(ECB).On the side of the financial market,the EU’s stock market was relatively prosperous,while the currency was under depreciation pressures and the interest rate remained low. It is expected that the ECB will maintain the quantitative easing policy in 2017. As a result,the EU’s inflation rate will rise further and the market’s vitality be stimulated to some extent. Nevertheless,the problem of high debt ratio will still remain unsolved. Against the background of a series of uncertainties such as the growing anti-globalization tide,the general elections in several European countries and the crisis in the banking sector,the economic growth of the EU will face an atmosphere of confusion and panic in 2017.

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    作者简介
    杨成玉:杨成玉,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所助理研究员。
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