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    中国债务问题的特点、风险与对策分析(2002~2015)

    摘要

    近期,中国的债务问题引发了学界的广泛关注。根据权威机构的统计数据显示,中国的杠杆率正逐年攀升,且新增债务的规模也在迅速扩张。当前中国的债务问题虽难以在短期内发展为债务危机,但仍需谨慎对待。经研究表明,中国债务的特点主要表现为四个方面:一是债务总量和风险可控;二是债务积累的增速较快;三是非企业部门债务中国有企业占比较高;四是债务主要集中在房地产、煤炭、钢铁等周期性行业。这些特征既可以反映出当前我国债务的组成结构,也进一步引起我们的警惕——当前我国债务问题可能会引发一定的风险。具体风险有以下四个方面:一是,资产价格下跌引发资产负债表衰退和银行部门危机;二是,金融市场快速去杠杆易导致流动性紧张;三是,地方政府隐性负债、变相负债的暴露会损害市场对政府的信心;四是,所有制偏向导致杠杆率“越去越高”。如果不对这些风险加以防控,那么债务将成为经济崩溃的导火索。因此,本文在对当前中国债务的特征和可能引发的风险进行深入分析后,进一步讨论了我国应对债务问题的具体对策和合理建议。

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    Abstract

    Recently,China’s debt problem has aroused widespread concern in academia. According to the statistics from the authority agency,it shows that China’s leverage is rising year by year,and the scale of new debt is also expanding rapidly. At present,China’s debt problem is hard to become a debt crisis in the short term,but it still needs to be treated carefully. The study shows that the characteristics of China’s debt are mainly manifested in four aspects:firstly,the total amount of debt and risk is still under control;secondly,the growth of accumulated debt is rapid;thirdly,the debt of the state-owned enterprises accounts for a high proportion in the debt of non-corporate sector;fourthly,the main concentration of the debt is the real estate,coal,steel and other cyclical industries. These characteristics can not only reflect both the current structure of China’s debt structure,but also arouse our vigilance—the current debt problems in China may bring some risks. The specific risks include following four aspects:firstly,the decline of the asset price will cause the recession of the balance sheet and the banking sector crisis;secondly,rapid deleverage in financial market is likely to lead to the constraint of the liquidity;thirdly,the implicit liabilities and disguised liabilities of the local government will damage the market confidence;fourthly,the ownership will be possible to make the deleverage become higher and higher. If these risks are not prevented ahead of time,then the debt will become the fuse of the economic collapse. Therefore,this paper further discusses the specific countermeasures and reasonable suggestions for China to deal with the debt problem after analyzes deeply about the characteristics of the current Chinese debt and the possible risks.

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    作者简介
    何帆:何帆,北京大学汇丰商学院教授。
    朱鹤:朱鹤,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所博士生。
    王芮:王芮,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所博士生。
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