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蔡 昉
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李 扬
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    经济增长新基础初步形成,新特点日益明显——2017~2018年中国经济形势分...

    摘要

    经过六年左右的经济增速换挡,2017年中国经济初步进入新的增长期,经济增长新基础初步形成。政策方面,按照稳中求进的工作总基调,2012年开始的宏观调控,从强刺激转为适时适度调控;从偏重投资为主转向投资消费并重;从偏重需求扩张转向稳需求与调结构、转方式、深化改革相辅相成。政策的可持续性明显增强。市场方面,一是外部经济环境趋稳,世界经济复苏态势趋向明朗,出口形势开始好转;二是城镇化推进不平衡的矛盾正在积极解决,支持投资增长的积极因素不断增加。特别重要的是,在宏观调控和市场的共同作用下,中国经济转型升级取得明显进展,改革取得积极成效。这些因素共同构成了经济增长的新基础,支撑了经济增长稳中向好的态势。在此基础上,预计2018年经济平稳增长的特点将更为明显。

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    Abstract

    After six years of economic growth shift,the Chinese economy has initially entered a new growth platform in 2017. In terms of policies,in accordance with the general tone of steady progress,the macro-control started in 2012 shifted from a strong stimulus to a moderate timely adjustment,from focusing on investment to equal emphasis on investment and consumption,from focusing on demand expansion to the combination of stabilizing demand,adjusting structure,changing growth model,and deepening the reform. The sustainability of policies has been significantly enhanced. In terms of the market,firstly,the external economic environment is more stabilized. The trend of global economic recovery tended to be clear,thus the export started to turn around. Second,contradiction in urbanization promotion was being solved actively,and positive factors supporting investment growth were constantly increasing. In particular,under joint action of macroeconomic regulation and market effect,remarkable progress has been made in China’s economic restructuring and upgrading,and reform achievement is positive. These factors constitute the new foundation for economic growth,and support the steady economic growth. Based on the above analysis,it is expected that the feature of steady growth in 2018 will be more pronounced.

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    作者简介
    张立群:张立群,供职于国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部。
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