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王伟光
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李培林
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    中国财政再分配效应测算

    摘要

    本文拓展了财政再分配的传统分析方法,将间接税纳入研究框架,从而构建一个可以综合测算包括各项税收、社会保障和转移支付在内的财政工具的再分配效应的分析框架。本文综合采用财政预算归宿法、居民收入核算框架法和MT指数测量与分解法,以中国2012年投入产出表和城乡居民调查数据为基础,构建了社会核算矩阵和可计算一般均衡模型,测算结果表明,我国的财政再分配从整体上对收入分配为逆向调节。Gini系数由财政作用前的0.4129上升为财政作用后的0.4316,上升幅度为4.5%;其中,来源端间接税的贡献为-37%,社会保障收入的贡献为-28%,转移支付的贡献为69%,社保缴费的贡献为9%,个人所得税的贡献为15%,使用端间接税的贡献为-126%。财政再分配还拉大了城乡收入分配差距。这一现象在中等收入国家和高收入国家中均不多见,主要原因在于,我国转移支付、社会保障支出、个人所得税和社会保障缴费在财政支出和收入中所占比重过低,对收入分配的正向调节力度过小,间接税在财政收入中占比过高,对收入分配的负向调节力度过大。

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    Abstract

    This paper expands on the traditional analysis of fiscal redistribution. It incorporates indirect tax into the research framework,and builds an analytical framework that can comprehensively measure the redistributive effect of fiscal instruments,including various taxes,social security and transfer payments. Based on China’s 2012 input-output table and survey data of urban and rural residents,this paper applied Fiscal Budget,Resident Income Accounting Framework and MT Index Measurement and Decomposition to build a social accounting matrix and a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that the overall redistribution of fiscal revenue in our country is reverse regulation. The Gini coefficient increased from 0.4129 before the fiscal effect to 0.4316 after the fiscal effect,up by 4.5%. Among them,indirect tax contributes -37%,social security contributes -28%,the transfer payment contributes 69%,social security contributes of 9%,personal income tax contributes 15%,and the use of indirect tax contributes of -126%. Financial redistribution also exacerbated the income gap between urban and rural areas. This phenomenon is rare in both middle-income and high-income countries. The main reason is that the proportion of transfer payments,social security expenditures,personal income tax and social security contributions in fiscal expenditure and income is too low,and the positive adjustment of income distribution is too small. On the other hand,indirect tax has a high proportion in fiscal revenue,and the negative adjustment of income distribution intensity is too great.

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    作者简介
    娄峰:娄峰,任职于中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所。
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