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    2016年房地产行业情况

    摘要

    房地产是中国经济重要支柱和民生产业,其发展态势关系国民经济的稳定和金融安全。2016年去库存成效显著,房地产新开工面积增速和房地产投资增速大幅回升,一线和核心二线城市甚至有过热的风险。随着“9·30”新政的出台,限购和限贷逐渐加码,四季度楼市再次遇冷。本文从行业特点、供给需求分析、行业周期性、政策等多方面对房地产市场进行分析发现,房地产业大周期利润高点已过,因楼市政策收紧正处于小周期下降通道。房地产市场变化对城投公司的影响体现在:因土地储备剥离,城投公司的贷款融资能力受到冲击;一二线城市拿地困难,城投在这些城市的地产开发放缓,面临着同业竞争升级;三四线城市去库存成绩明显,且四季度未受到楼市新政冲击,得益于溢价效应、民工返乡潮和自身环境,部分三四线城市城投业绩可期。

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    Abstract

    The development trend of real estate is related to the stable development of the national economy and financial security. Due to the obvious effect of reducing the inventory of real estate in 2016,growth rate of new construction area and real estate investment rebounded sharply and the market of first-tier and core second-tier cities is overheated. With the introduction of the 930 New Deal which limit purchase and loan,real estate sales fell again in the fourth quarter. This paper analyzed the real estate market from the industry characteristics,supply and demand,industry cyclical,policy and other aspects,and found that the high profit is away and a small cycle of decline is coming due to the tightening property of the real estate. There are several impacts on the urban investment industry because of changes in the real estate market. The divestiture of land impacted the loan financing capacity of urban investment industry. Land shortage of first-tier and second-tier cities and the fierce competition in the industry slows down the real estate development of UDICs. Since the obvious effect of reducing the inventory of real estate and the sales were not affected by the new policy,the performance of UDICs in the three or four tier cities is expected.

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