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    中国城乡文化教育消费需求景气总体评价——20年以来分析与2015年度测评

    摘要

    2015年,全国城乡文教消费需求继续保持高增长:总量增长13.27%,达到24036.45亿元;人均值增长12.19%,达到1723.11元。以人均值衡量,城乡文教消费增长显著高于产值增长,也显著高于城乡居民收入增长,亦显著高于总消费增长,且明显高于积蓄增长。文教消费城乡差距比上年缩小1.37%,各省域间城乡文教消费地区差距比上年缩小0.55%。2015年全国总体城乡综合景气指数测算:“九五”以来20年纵向测评、“十五”以来15年纵向测评、“十一五”以来10年纵向测评皆显著高于基数值,“十二五”以来5年纵向测评明显高于基数值,一年以来纵向测评略微高于基数值;城乡、地区无差距年度横向测评明显低于理想值,主要原因在于城乡差距、地区差距仍持续存在。

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    Abstract

    In 2015,the countrywide overall cultural and educational consumption demand in urban and rural areas continued to maintain high growth:total cultural consumption went up by 13.27%,reaching 2403.645 billion yuan;the per capita value went up by 12.19%,reaching 1723.11 yuan. As measured by per capita value,the annual growth of cultural and educational consumption in urban and rural areas was remarkably higher than the GDP growth,remarkably higher than the residents’ income growth and remarkably higher than the total consumption growth,also evidently higher than the savings growth. The disparity in cultural and educational consumption between urban and rural areas shrank by 1.37%;the regional gap of cultural and educational consumption in urban and rural areas among various provinces shrank by 0.55% over the previous year. The status evaluations of countrywide overall cultural and educational consumption demand in urban and rural areas in 2015 are as follows:the value of vertical evaluation is remarkably higher than the base value since the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” period;it is remarkably higher than the base value since the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period;it is remarkably higher than the base value since the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period;it is evidently higher than the base value since the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period and it is slightly higher than the base value of the previous year;the annual lateral evaluation without urban-rural and regional gaps is evidently lower than the ideal value,because of the continuous existing disparity of the urban-rural and the regional gaps.

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    作者简介
    王亚南:王亚南,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化发展研究中心主任。
    方彧:方彧,民政部中国老龄科学研究中心副研究员。
    魏海燕:魏海燕,云南省政协信息中心主任编辑,主要从事传媒信息分析研究。
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