中国石油产业发展报告（2020）
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中文摘要
2019年，我国GDP超过99万亿元，同比增长6.1%，稳居世界第二大经济体的地位。从能源产业发展来看，随着产业转型和技术创新的持续推进，高耗能的能源需求正逐步被清洁能源替代，能源消费增速趋缓。石油产业方面，我国市场化改革步伐加快，多元化竞争格局初步形成，而随着数字经济的快速崛起，石化产业也正改变固有的经营模式、培育新的经济增长点。
2019年，全球石油市场呈现供需双弱、炼油下行、贸易继续东移的特征。石油需求方面，石油需求增幅远低于预期，增长主要动力来自中国，值得关注的是，国际海事组织（IMO）船舶燃油新规实施进入倒计时，推动低硫燃料油需求不断增长。石油供应方面，全球范围内地缘政治局势加剧，全球石油供应出现近十年来的最低增幅，轻重质原油资源呈现结构性不平衡，美国超过沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯成为全球最大的原油生产国。炼油方面，亚太地区大量新增炼力投产令油品供应过剩压力日渐凸显。贸易方面，石油贸易格局深刻调整，总量继续攀升，重心持续东移。
2020年伊始，新冠肺炎疫情给全球经济及国际石油市场带来颠覆性的影响，石油需求大幅缩减，出现金融危机以来的首次萎缩。与此同时，OPEC+结束减产协议，以沙特阿拉伯为代表的产油国掀起新一轮价格战，由过去三年的限产保价政策转向争夺市场份额，虽然产油国再度达成新的减产协议，但全球石油库存仍急剧攀升，国际油价创2003年以来的新低。炼油方面，2020年全球仍将有大量新增炼力投产，在成品油供应过剩、新冠肺炎疫情严重影响全球经济和石油需求的背景下，炼油毛利将受到较大抑制并步入下行周期。
总体而言，随着产油国再度达成新的减产协议，国际油价下半年有希望重新站上40美元/桶乃至50美元/桶台阶，预计2020年国际油价多数时间维持低位运行，均价将大幅低于2019年水平。
从中长期来看，石油化工产业正面临世界政治格局变革、能源结构调整、技术升级创新的多重冲击，人类社会正逐步从工业经济过渡到数字经济时代，以人工智能、区块链、云计算、大数据等为代表的数字技术快速发展，生物柴油、生物燃料乙醇等清洁能源应用广泛，清洁化、数字化、智能化是石油化工企业实现可持续发展的必然选择。
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