亚太地区发展报告（2020）
| 书 名： |
亚太地区发展报告（2020） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF ASIA-PACIFIC （2020）
|
| 作 者： |
叶海林 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5201-7343-8 |
| 丛 书 名： |
亚太蓝皮书
订阅
|
| 关 键 词： |
经济发展 政治状况 中美关系 亚太地区 |
| 出版日期： |
2020-12-01 |
中文摘要
2019年，美国政府对中国挑起了数轮贸易摩擦，特朗普再版的“印太”战略也从构想阶段逐步发展到具有实质意义的实施阶段。中国和美国作为世界较大的两个经济体，对彼此战略意图的变化以及互动方式的调整不但使建交40年以来的中美关系发生了深刻转变，也给亚太地区格局带来了重大影响，可能使地区格局出现结构性转换。亚太地区对中美博弈的反应以及基于这种反应而出现的地区局势变动，以非常生动的方式向人们展示了亚太地区正在经历的“百年未有之大变局”。
亚太地区格局因中美博弈而发生的改变，不仅体现在美国“印太”战略对地区关系网络的分化与整合方面，也体现在中美经济关系变化对区域价值链的影响上。亚太地区结构对中美关系变化的因应，既表现为地区中等强国在亚太格局中相对地位的变化，也体现为地区国家基于各自诉求而出现的应对策略差异。因而，关注中美关系变化影响下的亚太地区局势，需要同时兼顾亚太地区作为一个整体出现的结构性反应，以及地区主要国家的具体政策演变趋势。
从“百年未有之大变局”的历史和宏观视角审视当前亚太地区格局的变化来看，无论怎样重视中国对地区格局的影响和塑造能力都不过分。在研究亚太地区格局的过程中，必须始终将中国的认知和策略选择作为至关重要的变量看待。中国的策略选择不但在很大程度上会决定中美博弈的过程与结果，也会影响亚太地区以及更广泛的印度洋-太平洋地区的格局走向。
当然，我们也必须看到，亚太地区格局正在发生的历史性变化，并不完全是中美关系变化的结果。地区行为体自主性的增强一方面使本地区局势的演化得以至少部分地摆脱大国博弈与大国竞争的影响，另一方面也使地区层级的行为体能够在一定程度上对大国的行为形成制约。认识亚太地区的许多热点问题，如印巴冲突、日韩贸易争端，需要更加重视地区视角。同样道理，亚太地区许多国家的对华政策尽管受到美国对中国发起的贸易摩擦以及“印太”战略实施的影响，但不能简单地将这些国家与中国的关系视作中美关系的衍生或者附属。中国与印度尼西亚、缅甸等国的关系并不受制于中美关系，甚至中国与美国“印太”战略至关重要的合作伙伴印度及澳大利亚的关系，也有相应运行逻辑，这需要引起人们的关注。
在2019年的亚太地区，热点问题依旧层出不穷，阿富汗问题、朝鲜半岛局势、极端主义势力在亚太地区的活动等，都从不同的角度以不同的方式影响亚太地区的局势。
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