21世纪海上丝绸之路研究报告（2020～2021）
书 名： 21世纪海上丝绸之路研究报告（2020～2021）
英 文 名： RESEARCH REPORT ON 21st -CENTURY MARITIME SILK ROAD （2020-2021）
作 者： 华侨大学海上丝绸之路研究院 许培源
I S B N： 978-7-5228-0184-1
丛 书 名：
海丝蓝皮书
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关 键 词： 发展战略 海上运输 丝绸之路 国际合作 中国
出版日期： 2022-09-01
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中文摘要
近年来，随着“一带一路”建设进入“工笔画”的新阶段，21世纪海上丝绸之路共建国在共筑“蓝色伙伴关系”、推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展方面取得了显著进展，也出现了许多新情况和新问题。东南亚区域新加坡和马来西亚的参与、新冠肺炎疫情对西亚北非“一带一路”合作的外溢影响，海洋环境、能源与安全领域的合作，以及“一带一路”贸易和投资进展受到了关注。
世界正经历百年未有之大变局，全球治理包括全球海洋治理朝着更加公正、合理的方向发展。中国倡议的“蓝色伙伴关系”，是新形势下应对全球海洋治理体系变革的“中国方案”，是共建21世纪海上丝绸之路的重要内容，也是各方参与构建海洋命运共同体的重要平台。海上丝绸之路沿线的自然环境复杂、社会文化差异大，评估其潜在的自然和人文风险、建设保障平台，是共建海上丝绸之路的必要举措。海洋环境、能源与安全领域的合作推动着海洋命运共同体的构建。在东南亚海域，已经形成以东盟国家为主体、东盟国家与国际组织共建以及东盟国家与域外国家合作三种海洋环境治理机制，但治理能力弱、海洋法系差异大等因素阻碍了东盟国家参与治理的成效。日益增加的能源消费和进口额提升了中国的能源事务话语权，中国可以通过为能源治理的理念层面、制度层面、物质层面提供公共产品，推动能源命运共同体构建。在安全合作方面，以马来西亚为例，中马两国在传统安全和非传统安全领域的合作总体顺利，但国际势力、地区局势、地缘因素的干扰显著，两国更需要以两国人民的根本利益为出发点，协力合作，共同应对安全挑战。
2020年新冠肺炎疫情冲击全球经济，但“一带一路”建设仍然取得了重要进展。在东南亚区域，中国与新加坡的“一带一路”合作亮点较多，在整体合作、重点项目、互联互通上取得了多项重要进展，但未来的合作也面临地缘安全形势变化、贸易保护主义逆流等挑战，双方需加强协调、共同应对。马来西亚接连经历了两次执政党轮替，中马“一带一路”合作虽有波折，但马方最终意识到“一带一路”倡议带来的机遇，选择了开展对华合作，并积极寻求新的突破。在西亚北非地区，新冠肺炎疫情不仅引发公共卫生危机，还导致能源价格下跌、地缘角力加剧，中国需要拓展合作领域，为下一阶段“一带一路”建设提供更多选择。在非洲，中非医疗卫生合作所构建的卫生健康共同体，正在成为新形势下中非“一带一路”合作、中非关系发展的重要抓手，抗击疫情、稳定经济、保障民生这三重驱动力为中非共建“一带一路”保驾护航。
具体到设施联通、贸易畅通方面，“一带一路”六大经济走廊交通基础设施的建设进展差异较大，中巴经济走廊进展最快，中蒙俄经济走廊建成项目最多，中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊建成项目次之，孟中印缅经济走廊进展有限。2020年，中国与“一带一路”共建国家的货物贸易额达到13589.5亿美元，约占中国对外贸易总额的30%，中国出口产品的质量阶梯拉长、质量提升。中国企业投资促进了东盟国家的出口多样化，其中，资源寻求型与创新资产寻求型投资的出口多样化促进作用最明显，但国别差异显著。在服务贸易领域，新冠肺炎疫情使旅游等传统服务贸易受阻，但疫情也为拓展服务贸易新领域提供了契机。2020年是中国-东盟数字经济合作年，中国-东盟在共建数字基础设施、发展跨境电子商务、数字技术人才培养和研发合作等方面取得了可喜的成就，但东盟国家数字技术落后、数字人才匮乏、中小企业数字化程度低、数据跨境流动限制等阻碍了双方数字经济合作的进一步发展。在民心相通方面，中国与21世纪海上丝绸之路各次区域的高等教育合作取得进展，但区域差异较大，与东盟国家的合作深入且覆盖面广，与南亚国家的合作次之，与非洲国家的合作不足但发展较快，与西亚国家的合作有限。中国与21世纪海上丝绸之路共建国家的司法合作和纠纷解决机制也受到关注，构建中国-东盟的多元化纠纷解决机制，深化司法合作和纠纷解决机制对接，可成为海上丝绸之路民商事纠纷解决秩序的典范。
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