中东发展报告No.24（2021～2022）
| 书 名： |
中东发展报告No.24（2021～2022） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST No.24 （2021-2022）
|
| 作 者： |
王林聪 刘冬 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5228-1011-9 |
| 丛 书 名： |
中东黄皮书
订阅
|
| 关 键 词： |
中东 国家发展规划 战略自主性 安全形势 |
| 出版日期： |
2022-10-01 |
中文摘要
2021年以来，大国竞争日趋激烈，世纪疫情和地区冲突交织叠加，世界进入新的动荡变革期，不稳定性和不确定性显著上升。大国竞争是中东地区的常态，在大国竞争背景下，中东局势和中东地区发展呈现出许多新变化。
首先，中东地区的大国竞争趋于激烈，中东在全球战略竞争中的地位进一步凸显。乌克兰危机外溢，美俄博弈延伸到中东地区，美国出于维护其全球霸权地位的考虑，重新调整了中东政策，强化在中东地区的大国竞争。与此同时，中东地区国家的战略自主性增强，加大了对地区问题乃至国际事务的参与度，“小多边”和“灵活多边”以及次区域整合等成为中东格局的新样态。
其次，地区国家间关系趋于缓和，出现了从中东剧变以来的“动荡波”向现阶段谋求稳定和发展的“缓和潮”过渡的新态势。具体表现为：土耳其与以色列、沙特、阿联酋、埃及等国关系的缓和，以色列与阿联酋、巴林、摩洛哥、苏丹等阿拉伯国家关系的缓和，沙特等逊尼派联盟与伊朗领导的什叶派阵营之间关系的缓和。但是，中东国家之间关系的“缓和”不等于“和解”，这种“缓和”能否持久还存在不确定性。与此同时，巴以、叙利亚、也门以及利比亚等热点问题并未降温，根本性矛盾和分歧并未缓解，冲突频仍，中东安全困境严峻，地区局势走向仍充满变数。
再次，中东国家加快发展规划的实施，探索创新发展、自主发展的新路径，力求破解民生难题，改变发展困境，走上可持续发展道路。一方面，在新冠肺炎疫情、气候变化、粮食危机等全球性问题的影响下，中东国家发展遭遇严峻挑战，受战乱困扰的国家重建进程困难重重，并未取得实质进展。另一方面，一些中东国家通过实施发展规划，提高了国家实力和地位，在变乱交织的中东地区逐渐崛起，并在一定程度上改变着中东地区的面貌，成为重塑中东秩序的重要“地区力量”。
在新的历史条件下，中东国家发展规划与“一带一路”倡议的对接取得新进展。中东国家还积极回应中国提出的“全球发展倡议”和“全球安全倡议”，加快了全面合作的步伐。共克时艰、共促发展、共筑安全成为中国和中东国家的共同愿景，进一步推动中国和中东国家关系迈上新阶段。
从长远来看，中东国家之间关系逐步缓和、中东国家加快实施发展规划以及中东国家战略自主性增强，给中东地区发展和稳定带来新机遇，也在塑造一个不同于以往的“新中东”。
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