东南亚地区发展报告（2021～2022）
| 书 名： |
东南亚地区发展报告（2021～2022） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST ASIA （2021-2022）
|
| 作 者： |
王勤 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5228-1241-0 |
| 丛 书 名： |
东南亚蓝皮书
订阅
|
| 关 键 词： |
全球疫情 东南亚 政经形势 数字时代 |
| 出版日期： |
2022-12-01 |
中文摘要
跨入21世纪第三个十年以来，新冠肺炎疫情的全球蔓延，对东南亚地区经济社会发展造成了巨大的冲击，东南亚国家深陷自亚洲金融危机后最严重的经济衰退。在全球疫情下，东南亚地区政治与经济形势呈现一系列格局性变化，未来地区发展仍存在较大不确定性。
尽管缅甸出现军方重返政坛的突发事件，但2021年东南亚地区政局仍保持相对稳定。作为社会主义国家的老挝和越南分别召开了党代会，选举产生了新的中央领导机构；印尼政府重组内阁，稳定了其执政地位和民意基础；马来西亚政坛多次震荡，执政联盟间的整合引发政府领导层频繁变更；2022年菲律宾大选登记和竞选活动正式启动，小马科斯和莎拉组合支持率暂时领先；新加坡政府内阁大改组，第四代领导班子领军人选再度换帅；泰国的街头示威活动卷土重来，巴育总理挺过国会不信任投票。2022年上半年，东帝汶和菲律宾的大选已尘埃落定，在3月东帝汶举行的独立以来第5次总统选举中，前总统奥尔塔当选，在5月菲律宾举行的全国和地方选举中，小马科斯高票当选新一任总统；2022年下半年马来西亚和泰国是否举行全国大选仍是两大悬念，马来西亚和泰国本届政府任期均在2023年届满，马来西亚国内普遍认为大选将在2022年8月举行，而泰国副总理巴逸透露可能会在11月亚太经济合作组织（APEC）峰会后举行全国大选。
2021年，东南亚地区经济呈现恢复性增长，显露出复苏态势。从需求结构看，东南亚主要国家的私人消费和政府消费均扭转负增长局面，固定资本形成有所扩大，进出口贸易增长较快，成为一些国家经济复苏的重要外部动力；从供给结构看，各国农业、工业和服务业呈现复苏景象，尤其是制造业在国外需求扩大的带动下强劲增长，推动国内经济触底反弹。与多数国家不同，缅甸和文莱经济增速由正转负，缅甸经济增速大幅下滑是受政局突变后社会动荡和新冠肺炎疫情的影响，而文莱经济负增长的主要原因是油气行业产出下降，加上疫情对建筑业和服务业的影响。2022年，东南亚国家经济将保持复苏的势头，各国经济将呈现“K”形复苏的走势，即不同国家或不同产业部门涨跌互现，经济复苏形成分叉走势。同时，国际大宗商品价格急剧上涨，引发全球性通货膨胀，将推动东南亚国家物价上涨；欧美国家开始收紧货币政策，导致新兴市场国家货币贬值和短期国际游资回流，将对东南亚国家的金融市场造成较大的冲击。
随着全球跨入数字时代，东南亚地区的数字化转型方兴未艾。数字经济是东南亚经济复苏和社会发展的新引擎，数字化将推动面向“工业4.0”的产业转型，也是实现区域互联互通和构建东盟共同体三大支柱的技术支撑。作为东南亚区域组织，东盟制定了面向数字经济的发展战略和总体规划，各国纷纷出台多层面和宽领域的数字化转型计划，加快数字基础设施的建设，推进第五代移动通信技术（5G）和移动互联网的建设与普及，兴建大数据中心，规划人工智能方案，创建智慧城市，推广电子商务、数字金融和电子政务，致力于构建数字经济、数字社会和数字政府，并取得明显的成效。
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