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中国农村经济形势分析与预测(2022~2023)

书 名: 中国农村经济形势分析与预测(2022~2023)
英 文 名: ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ON CHINA’S RURAL ECONOMY (2022-2023)
作 者:  魏后凯 王贵荣 李国祥 孙同全 韩磊
I S B N: 978-7-5228-1664-7
丛 书 名: 农村绿皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  农业农村经济 农产品供给 农业强国 高质量发展
出版日期: 2023-04-01

中文摘要

2022年农业农村经济支撑作用显著。全年第一产业增加值88345亿元,比上年实际增长4.1%,对GDP实际增长的贡献率为9.9%,比2021年增加3.2个百分点;第一产业实际增长拉动GDP实际增长0.7%,比上年增加0.2个百分点。农林牧渔业固定资产投资增长4.2%,农副食品加工业固定资产投资增长15.5%,食品制造业固定资产投资增长13.7%。乡村消费品零售额59285亿元,与上年持平;其在全社会消费品零售总额中所占比重上升到13.5%,比2021年增加0.1个百分点。

2022年粮油棉生产结构进一步优化。全年粮食总产量68652万吨,比上年增产367万吨,增长0.5%。粮食增产的贡献全部来源于粮食播种面积的稳定增加。全年粮食播种面积11833万公顷,比上年增加70万公顷,增长0.6%。大豆扩种成效明显,全年大豆播种面积1024万公顷,比上年增加183万公顷,增长21.7%;大豆产量达2028万吨,增产388万吨,增长23.7%。2022年油料棉花不同程度增产。全年油料产量3653万吨,比上年增加41万吨,增长1.1%;棉花产量598万吨,比上年增加25万吨,增长4.3%。

2022年肉禽蛋奶和水产品产量普遍稳定增长。全年猪牛羊禽肉产量9227万吨,比上年增加340万吨,增长3.8%。其中,猪肉产量5541万吨,比上年增加245万吨,增长4.6%;牛肉产量718万吨,比上年增加20万吨,增长3.0%;羊肉产量525万吨,比上年增加11万吨,增长2.0%;禽肉产量2443万吨,比上年增加63万吨,增长2.6%。水产品产量6869万吨,比上年增加179万吨,增长2.7%。其中,养殖水产品产量5568万吨,比上年增加174万吨,增长3.2%。

2022年农产品进出口总额继续扩大。全年农产品进出口总额3343亿美元,比上年增加302亿美元,增长9.9%。其中,农产品出口983亿美元,增加139亿美元,增长16.5%;农产品进口2361亿美元,增加162亿美元,增长7.4%;农产品国际贸易逆差1378亿美元,比上年增加23亿美元,增长1.7%。

2022年多数农产品进口量较大幅度减少。全年进口粮食14687万吨,比上年减少1767万吨,下降10.7%;食用植物油进口量减少到648万吨,比上年减少391万吨,下降37.6%;棉花进口194万吨,比上年减少21万吨,下降9.8%。全年进口肉类(包括杂碎)740万吨,比2021年减少198万吨,下降21.0%。其中,进口猪肉176万吨,比上年减少195万吨,下降52.6%。

2022年农产品及食品价格总体波动幅度较小。全年农产品生产者价格比上年上涨0.4%,食品消费价格上涨2.8%。农产品生产者价格及食品消费价格总体虽然稳定或者波动幅度较小,但结构性差异十分显著。食品消费价格呈现结构性波动态势,带来居民食品烟酒消费支出名义增长速度既大于居民消费价格上涨幅度,又大于居民人均消费支出增长速度。全国居民食品烟酒人均消费7481元,比上年增长4.2%,高出居民消费价格指数2.2个百分点,高出居民人均消费支出增速2.4个百分点,进一步导致居民恩格尔系数不降反升。全国居民恩格尔系数30.5%,比上年上升0.7个百分点。

2022年农村居民人均可支配收入增长速度高于经济增长速度。全年农村居民人均可支配收入20133元,实际增长4.2%,增速比2021年下降5.5个百分点。农村居民人均可支配收入实际增速虽然明显回落,但仍高于GDP实际增速1.2个百分点。对农村居民增收贡献最多的仍然是工资性收入。农村居民人均工资性收入8449元,增长6.2%,对农村居民增收贡献率为40.9%;农村居民人均经营净收入对农村居民增收贡献率明显提高,农村居民人均经营净收入6972元,增长6.2%。农村居民人均经营净收入对农村居民增收贡献率上升到33.7%,比2021年提高6.6个百分点。城乡间居民收入分配状况继续改善。全年农村居民人均可支配收入比城镇居民人均可支配收入实际增速高2.3个百分点,城乡居民收入比为2.45,比上年下降0.05。

展望2023年,尽管仍然面临国际环境的不确定性等挑战,但促进农业农村经济合理运行和高质量发展的有利因素显著增多,农林牧渔业发展总体继续保持良好态势,乡村消费和农村投资增长,主要农产品价格将保持在合理区间运行,对经济社会稳定和发展支撑作用持续显现。预测2023年第一产业增加值将超过9万亿元,增长4%;粮食总产量将突破6.9亿吨,其中玉米产量将达到2.9亿吨左右,大豆产量将超过2100万吨。粮食生产结构进一步优化;猪牛羊禽肉产量将达到9500万吨;农产品进出口规模将超过3500亿美元,农产品出口超过1000亿美元,农产品进口超过2500亿美元,主要农产品进口量呈现增长态势;农产品及食品价格波动幅度总体有限但结构性波动与波动短期化态势延续,农产品生产者价格将回落3%左右,食品消费价格上涨3%左右;农村居民人均可支配收入增加到2.2万元左右,增长约10%,城乡居民收入比将进一步下降到2.40,比2022年下降0.05。

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