非洲发展报告No.26（2023～2024）
中文摘要
在百年变局、乌克兰危机、全球经济不景气等多重因素叠加及交互作用的背景下，2023年非洲形势呈现出如下特征。
其一，非洲政局总体稳定，但局地安全风险上升。2023年，非洲政治与安全形势在变乱交织中继续保持总体稳定，和平发展仍是主流。年内，尼日利亚、刚果（金）、津巴布韦、加蓬、利比里亚等15个国家举行总统或议会选举，选举工作总体顺利，“逢选易乱”问题得到缓解。但受外部大国竞争和内部治理危机的影响，非洲局部地区政治、安全风险有所上升，突出体现在：尼日尔、加蓬接连发生军事政变，布基纳法索、塞拉利昂和几内亚比绍发生未遂政变，新一轮“政变潮”似有蔓延之势；布基纳法索、马里、尼日尔宣布退出萨赫勒五国集团，成立“萨赫勒国家联盟”；苏丹、埃塞俄比亚和刚果（金）内部冲突复杂难解，不仅严重破坏三国内部稳定，而且对地区局势产生重大冲击；非洲反恐形势仍然面临严峻挑战，尤其是萨赫勒地区恐怖主义形势持续恶化且不断外溢。面对困难挑战，非洲国家坚持以非洲方式解决非洲问题，积极探索符合自身实际的发展道路。
其二，非洲经济触底反弹，但经济复苏步伐放缓。2023年，非洲国家聚焦疫后恢复发展，经济形势有喜有忧。受全球经济增速放缓、地缘政治紧张局势加剧、全球货币政策紧缩、气候灾害等因素的叠加影响，加之南非、尼日利亚、安哥拉等主要经济体表现低迷，非洲经济增速不及预期。受乌克兰危机导致的食品和能源价格上涨及非洲国家货币对美元贬值等因素的影响，非洲通货膨胀率高企，创10年来的最高水平。得益于财政整顿和债务重组，非洲国家的财政赤字开始收窄，但受国际需求疲软及大宗商品价格波动等因素的影响，非洲贸易条件有所恶化，经常项目逆差扩大，外国直接投资出现小幅下滑。非洲大陆自贸区方兴未艾，一体化市场初具规模，有望带动消费、制造业和旅游服务业持续回升。展望2024年，非洲国家如果努力降低地缘政治风险带来的输入性冲击；加快发展可再生能源产业，改善能源贫困现状；提高偿债能力，降低债务风险，预计非洲经济发展状况将有所改善。
其三，非洲联合自强势头强劲，战略自主性有所提升。2023年，全球各方加大对非洲的战略重视和投入力度，非洲成为牵动国际力量对比的重要变量。在大变局背景下，作为“全球南方”国家最为集中的大陆，非洲成为大国竞相争取的对象，美西方国家政要相继访问非洲，俄罗斯、沙特和意大利先后与非洲举办峰会，这为非洲战略自主性的提升带来机遇。非洲联盟正式获邀加入二十国集团，有助于强化非洲在国际舞台上的能见度和话语权。南非召开金砖国家领导人第十五次会晤并成功主导金砖国家扩员，埃塞俄比亚、埃及成为金砖国家新成员。非洲主要大国提出解决乌克兰危机的非洲版“和平倡议”，并组团赴俄乌展开外交斡旋，这使得非洲国际影响力显著提升。面对域外大国纷争，非洲国家采取灵活、务实、不排他的平衡政策，反对美西方将大国竞争引入非洲并拒绝“选边站”。此外，非洲国家在气候变化、安理会改革等全球事务中以一个声音说话，彰显集体影响力。
2023年，中非各领域交往与合作稳步推进。年内，习近平主席访问南非并主持召开中非领导人对话会，与非洲国家领导人共商中非关系发展大计。中非合作论坛第十六届高官会成功召开，“九项工程”落实稳步推进。2024年又将迎来新一届中非合作论坛峰会，中非双方将携手努力，推动务实合作迈向更高层次。
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