中国智能产业发展报告(2024)
书 名:
中国智能产业发展报告(2024)
英 文 名:
ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTELLIGENT INDUSTRY (2024)
作 者:
张磊 主编; 汪红驹 张鹏 副主编
I S B N:
978-7-5228-4783-2
丛 书 名:
关 键 词:
人工智能技术 智能产业50 制造强国 金融强国 风险治理
出版时间:
2024年12月
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中文摘要
作为一种通用目的的关于发明方法的发明(Invention of a Method of Invention,IMI)技术,大模型驱动的新一代人工智能不同于以互联网革命为核心内容的数字经济,能够提高知识生产率,并确保无人口红利条件下的原创知识正增长,有望提供除工业化之外的新规模经济。除了巨大的生产力潜力,新一代人工智能还加剧了创造性破坏,对创新的个体风险识别和金融宏观审慎监管提出了新要求。本报告在回应国家对新一代人工智能可解释性以及治理、产业路径、对就业和收入分配影响、与可持续发展的关系和价值创造等问题关切的基础上,提出将发展新一代人工智能上升为独立于数字经济的国家战略的建议。智能产业革命时代的到来将会带来生产力跃迁,从根本上重塑经济增长的内生逻辑,从增量和存量上对中国新兴行业和传统行业进行重造。特别是随着智能产业革命路径逐渐清晰和预期逐渐明确,中国微观上市公司资本支出、劳动力收入增厚和创新增长等效应促进上市公司在经历内外部环境冲击下仍然保持了转型与发展相统一的增长路径,智能产业类上市公司表现更为突出。从中国智能产业类上市公司分布看,其主要集中在计算机、机械设备、电子和通信等ICT硬件和软件集中行业,本书构建的“智能产业50”投资组合不仅“质优”而且“价廉”,长期来看,“智能产业50”投资组合具备长期投资价值,是中国智能产业革命大潮在微观上的集中体现。
从制造强国建设来看,智能制造对传统意义的生产方式、制造范式和产业模式进行了颠覆式变革,但也存在关键技术装备受制于人、智能化应用场景开发不足、基础设施薄弱、行业与地域智能化水平不均衡、产业发展生态环境不优等不足。未来要对标智能制造高质量发展所需的基础要件,攻克关键核心技术,广泛拓展应用场景,完善智能制造基础设施布局,加强体制机制改革,以智能制造高质量发展为主攻方向推进制造强国建设。从服务贸易转型来看,在智能化浪潮的推动下,服务贸易的模式也逐渐从高度依赖人力的传统模式,转型为以AI赋能的高效率、个性化和去中心化的模式。平台经济与AI技术的深度融合促进了电子商务、金融科技、远程医疗、在线教育等领域的跨境服务贸易发展。最后,人工智能也是实现我国金融强国建设目标的重要推力。面对高端金融科技人才不足、全球人工智能监管体系呈碎片化状态、各类新型金融风险增多等挑战,未来我国需要保持对金融领域人工智能应用的政策支持力度、鼓励金融机构以人工智能技术推进金融产品和金融服务创新、增强防范化解新型金融风险的能力、加大对金融领域高端人才引进和培养力度、提升我国在全球金融领域人工智能治理的影响力。
本书最后从人工智能投资、治理和就业三个专题更深刻地讨论当前人工智能发展大潮应当着重注意和需要亟待解决的重点和难点。首先,从投资看,人工智能是当今全球新一轮科技革命的战略高地,但中国人工智能投资却仍然大幅落后美国,且正呈现被拉大的趋势。2019~2023年,美国共在人工智能领域投资3285.48亿美元,中国的投入仅有1326.65亿美元。为缩小差距,可以考虑通过由以间接税为主的税制结构向直接税间接税并重的税制结构过渡,以鼓励创新,并利用好新型举国体制的优势,发挥好政府对人工智能投资的引领作用。其次,从治理看,人工智能的快速发展也涉及一系列不容忽视的安全风险,这些风险包括诸多经济风险,也包括社会风险和政治风险。AI将给全球治理带来前所未有的挑战,需要新的国际框架来管理权力动态、确保公平发展。中国应该发挥新型举国体制优势,充分利用巨大数据和场景优势,扩大高水平开放,从而确立人工智能领域的技术优势和话语权。最后,人工智能技术的发展和广泛应用对就业市场造成了冲击,应当削弱就业替代效应,放大创造效应和补偿效应,积极应对就业冲击,防范就业社会风险。
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