太平洋岛国发展报告（2024）
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中文摘要
2023年，太平洋岛国地区政治形势总体稳定，密克罗尼西亚联邦、瓦努阿图、瑙鲁、马绍尔群岛以及法属波利尼西亚举行大选。其中，瓦努阿图总理的频繁更迭，导致其国内局势动荡并伴随着政治危机。新冠疫情过后，太平洋岛国的经济逐渐复苏回暖，旅游业和建筑业成为推动经济复苏的一股强劲动力，但局部地区冲突、高通货膨胀率以及气候危机等加剧了太平洋岛国经济增长的不确定性。在社会民生层面，太平洋岛国依然饱受毒品非法贸易、粮食危机以及教育差异等问题的困扰，社会矛盾逐渐凸显。太平洋岛国借力地缘政治竞争，不断拓宽合作领域、深化合作关系，以寻求自身发展利益的最大化。面对亟需重视的气候变化问题，太平洋岛国积极运用“新太平洋外交”，展示独特的集体外交范式，将气候变化议题推进到世界舞台的最中央。
在区域层面，新喀里多尼亚和法属波利尼西亚在争取脱离法国独立的进程中遭遇挫折。新喀里多尼亚新宪法地位的谈判陷入僵局，其独立进程也充满不确定性；2023年5月，法属波利尼西亚新总统上任后，法国承诺放弃针对法属波利尼西亚采取的“空椅”政策，但未对其独立要求做出回应。巴布亚新几内亚布干维尔岛地区独立公投延期，加剧了该地区持续高涨的独立情绪。尽管双方进行了多次磋商，但尚未取得实质性进展，这为布干维尔岛的独立进程增添了新的不确定性。2023年，以太平洋共同体、太平洋岛国论坛等为主的区域组织，在国际舞台上发挥着日益重要的作用。这些组织为太平洋岛国发声，在环境保护、能源开发和数字化建设等领域开展了大量工作。各岛国（地区）通过相互支持，弥合过去的裂痕，这些区域组织致力于维护“蓝色太平洋”，促进该地区的可持续发展和繁荣。
当前，太平洋岛国地区成为各国竞合的重点地区，美国、澳大利亚、新西兰、法国、印度、韩国和日本等国通过外交、经济、安全和文化等多个层面的努力，试图加强对该地区政治、经济、文化和意识形态的控制，继续谋求扩大在太平洋岛国的影响力。5月，印度主持召开了第三届印度-太平洋岛国合作论坛峰会（FIPIC），韩国首次举办韩国-太平洋岛国峰会。7月，法国总统马克龙开启“历史性”的南太平洋之行，先后前往新喀里多尼亚、瓦努阿图和巴布亚新几内亚访问。9月，第二届美国-太平洋岛国峰会召开。日本在基里巴斯和新喀里多尼亚分别设立大使馆和领事馆。澳大利亚、新西兰领导人对太平洋岛国开展访问活动。
2023年，太平洋岛国地区在政治、经济、社会和国际关系上面临着机遇和挑战并存的局面。2023年，中国与太平洋岛国通过高层对话和政党交往，不断拓展合作领域，推动经济复苏。双方在减贫脱贫、粮食安全、绿色发展、数字经济和应对气候变化等领域开展务实合作，中国和太平洋岛国关系发展再上新台阶。在全球地缘政治博弈加剧和经济逆风下行的背景下，中国与太平洋岛国全面加强合作符合双方共同利益，太平洋岛国积极推进“向北看”政策、“蓝色太平洋计划”同中国“一带一路”倡议对接，加强在重大关切问题上的沟通和协调，在各层次各领域开展广泛合作，按照平等互利原则，建立全方位、宽领域、多层次的合作关系，提升合作效能，为地区和平与稳定发展做出新的贡献。
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