巴尔干地区研究报告（2024）
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中文摘要
冷战结束后，巴尔干地区逐渐从巴尔干化走向欧洲化，该地区国家以加入欧盟为外交的优先目标。与此同时，因巴尔干地区地缘政治地位突出，俄罗斯、美国等域外利益攸关方也纷纷涉足该地区。自身存在民族问题及与邻国边界争端的巴尔干国家的内政和国际政治紧密联动。2023年，俄乌冲突对巴尔干地区在上述方面的影响越发突出。
俄乌冲突影响下，欧盟为管控地区风险，并强化其在巴尔干地区争端解决和改革方面的引领作用，2023年继续加大对巴尔干的投入力度。一方面，欧盟调处以科索沃和波黑问题为主的地区争端，正式公布《关于科索沃与塞尔维亚关系正常化道路协议的欧盟提案》（以下简称《欧盟提案》），继续通过“胡萝卜加大棒”的方式试图使波黑三族共同朝着加入欧盟的方向努力；另一方面，把西巴尔干增长计划作为2023年的旗舰项目，落实“分阶段、渐进式”推动该地区国家入盟的思路。但是，欧盟所获成效有限，科索沃局势仍然不稳定，波黑政治僵局持续。2023年，西巴尔干国家入盟无明显进展。
与此同时，美国也加强了对巴尔干地区的关注和投入，加强对巴尔干国家的军事援助，通过北约强化与巴尔干国家的军事联盟关系，打击地区亲俄势力，助推欧盟区域政策实施。由于俄乌冲突发生后，多数西巴尔干国家追随欧美外交政策，俄罗斯和西巴尔干国家的关系出现变化，西巴尔干逐渐淡出俄罗斯的外交优先区域，但俄仍在当地维持一定的影响力。总体上，欧盟、美国、北约和俄罗斯对抗带来的结构性压力加剧了巴尔干地区的不稳定。
面对2023年世界局势的加速演变，中国与巴尔干关系依然展现出强大韧性，双方在经贸投资、数字技术、绿色能源等功能性领域的相互依存仍在加深。
除了关注巴尔干地区的地缘政治格局，本报告还探讨了2023年巴尔干地区后疫情时期的经济发展形势。地区经济形势分报告指出，经历了后疫情时期的强劲经济增长，2023年巴尔干国家的经济增速放缓，但是经济增速普遍高于欧盟和欧元区的水平，反映出巴尔干地区的经济增长潜力，但巴尔干地区同时面临劳动力短缺和高失业率问题。巴尔干地区与国别专题篇详细讨论了2023年欧元区新成员克罗地亚的经济形势，指出加入欧元区虽给克罗地亚带来了诸多经济、社会、政治和安全方面的好处，但也给克罗地亚社会带来了一些挑战。
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