粤港澳大湾区经济发展报告（2025）
中文摘要
推进粤港澳大湾区建设，是以习近平同志为核心的党中央做出的重大决策，也是新时代推动“一国两制”事业发展的新实践。研究构建反映粤港澳大湾区整体经济发展状况的统计指标体系，对于正确认识粤港澳大湾区整体经济发展水平、结构变动趋势以及各城市协同发展状况，系统研究粤港澳大湾区高质量发展和产业结构变动因素具有重要意义。
本报告在系统分析珠三角九市、香港和澳门的地区（本地）生产总值、主要行业增加值及其增长速度差异的基础上，依据国内生产总值统计制度，对香港、澳门相应统计指标进行调整，并与珠三角九市汇总，测算出粤港澳大湾区地区生产总值、人均地区生产总值、主要行业增加值及其增长速度等重要指标；同时测算了珠三角九市2018～2023年支出法地区生产总值及其构成项，并将其与香港、澳门相关数据进行汇总，得到2012～2023年粤港澳大湾区支出法地区生产总值及其构成项，进而构建了一个既能反映粤港澳大湾区整体经济发展状况，又能系统了解粤港澳大湾区各城市经济发展状况的宏观经济分析数据库。
基于该数据库的分析显示，2012～2023年，粤港澳大湾区经济总量持续增长，产业结构不断优化，产业梯次发展格局显现，产业分工格局初步形成，消费需求是经济增长的主要动力，投资需求和政府消费支出对经济增长的推动作用总体提升。分城市看，粤港澳大湾区各城市经济总量均呈增长态势，人均经济发展水平显著提升，产业结构持续优化升级，城市间产业布局互补性增强，消费需求在经济增长中的作用显著提升，政府消费支出在稳定经济增长中发挥重要作用，居民收入、企业利润和政府财政收入总体实现同步增长。
与此同时，粤港澳大湾区也面临经济增速下行压力加大、产业同质性仍较为突出、部分城市产业基础薄弱、消费需求疲软、投资需求边际贡献减小、净出口需求波动较大且对经济增长的边际贡献较小等问题。基于此，本报告认为促进粤港澳大湾区高质量发展要紧紧围绕“一点两地”全新定位，充分发挥比较优势，协同推进粤港澳大湾区建设，全面推动规则衔接与制度创新，筑牢未来发展基础，推动粤港澳大湾区从“区域合作试验区”向“全球经济增长极”跃升，同时要着力扩大消费，提升投资收益，稳定净出口，强化需求对经济增长的带动作用。
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