中国核能发展报告（2025）
中文摘要
在气候变化、能源供应危机及电力需求激增的背景下，核能凭借其能源禀赋和固有优势，已成为全球能源安全与碳中和战略的重要支柱，全球核能复兴正加速推进，发展势头强劲。截至2024年12月底，全球在运核电机组417台，总装机容量37704.6万kW，分布在31个国家。第三代核电技术进入规模化部署阶段，小型模块化反应堆研发部署密集推进，第四代核能系统加快推进研发和示范应用，核聚变技术不断取得新突破，核燃料市场和供需格局加速重构。国际原子能机构连续四年上调核电装机预测，根据2024年最新预测结论，2050年全球核电装机容量将达5.1亿（低值）～9.5亿kW（高值），核能发电量达4.2万亿～7.7万亿kW·h，在全球总发电量中占比为6.9%～12.8%。
本书全面系统地介绍了2024年我国核能产业发展的最新进展。在核能产业高质量发展方面，截至2024年12月底，我国商运核电机组数量达到57台，额定装机容量达到5976万kW；累计发电量4447亿kW·h，占全国累计发电量的4.72%；在建核电机组28台，总装机容量3370万kW，继续保持世界第一。商运核电机组运行安全情况保持全球最高水平，核能多用途利用场景不断拓展。核能产业链供应链能力持续提升，铀资源自主保障能力增强，闭式燃料循环体系加速构建，关键设备国产化率不断提升，数字化转型工作稳步推进。核技术应用产业高速发展，产业链融通协作、交联并进的趋势更加显著。在核能科技创新方面，大型先进压水堆技术持续优化，高温气冷堆国家科技重大专项科研课题全部完成验收，在小型模块化反应堆、钠冷快堆、钍基熔盐堆、聚变堆等关键技术研发方面持续取得新突破，核燃料循环关键技术研发取得新进展，共性技术创新持续提升核科技整体水平，一大批创新人才竞相涌现。在核能国际合作方面，我国核能国际合作的广度和深度持续拓展，在核工程建设、核科技创新、铀资源合作、核医疗等领域取得重要成果，核能国际影响力稳步提升。在核能行业管理和安全保障方面，核能行业政策法规体系进一步完善，项目审批与建设科学有序，核与辐射安全监管水平显著提升，核应急管理持续优化，核安保与核材料管制进一步法治化、规范化，行业交流更加广泛，行业管理的现代化水平持续提升。
本书分析了当前全球核能发展的新形势，并对未来我国核能发展进行了展望：一是全球核能发展迎来全面复苏，2030年前我国运行核电规模将成为世界第一；二是核能强国积极抢占核科技创新制高点，我国将加快推进核科技高水平自立自强；三是国际核能竞争合作格局加快演变调整，我国将继续保持开放合作姿态积极推动核能国际合作；四是AI与核能呈现双向融合发展态势，我国将推进数智技术赋能核能高质量发展；五是核电参与电力市场交易程度日益加深，未来将成为我国新型电力系统的重要基础性支撑电源。同时，本书针对我国核能发展面临的挑战，提出了若干思考建议：一是我国现有核电空间布局有待优化，须推动核电空间布局均衡发展；二是核能科技创新仍存短板弱项，须加快提升核科技创新能力；三是我国天然铀需求持续增长，须加强顶层统筹、协同推进；四是国际核能市场竞争加剧，须持续发力推动全产业链“走出去”；五是核能清洁低碳价值有待在市场交易机制中得到体现，须推动核电纳入我国绿电绿证体系。
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总报告
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