2025年中国社会形势分析与预测
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中文摘要
本报告是中国社会科学院“社会形势分析与预测”课题组的2024年度分析报告（社会蓝皮书），由中国社会科学院社会学研究所组织研究机构专家、高校学者以及政府机构研究人员撰写。
本报告认为，2024年，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，中国有效应对国际政治经济形势的各种不确定性因素的影响，充分发挥自身优势，推动中国经济社会发展稳中有进、稳中向好。党的二十届三中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革 推进中国式现代化的决定》，为中国经济社会发展和中国式现代化的推进提供了强劲的改革动力和政治保障。
本报告指出，2024年，经过全国上下的共同努力，经济发展实现稳中有增，社会领域发展稳中向好，就业形势总体稳定，城乡居民收入和消费继续增长，各项社会事业继续向前发展，生态文明建设事业进一步发展，生态环境继续改善。中国社会现代化作为中国式现代化的重要组成部分取得新的进展。
本报告也强调，2024年，国际政治经济形势继续呈现复杂多变态势，风险和不确定性因素有所增加，国内经济社会发展形势也出现若干新的变化。人口负增长和老龄化均呈加速态势，青年劳动就业压力不容忽视。居民收入差距收缩难度增大，生活消费增长回落且支出结构升级趋势出现波动。社会流动趋缓，中间阶层规模扩张速度受限。和谐劳动关系建设尚需持续推进，社会安全治理形势面临挑战，复杂的网络舆情凸显平和理性的社会心态建设亟待进一步加强。
应该看到，近期中国经济社会发展主要指标出现了不少积极变化，积累了一些积极因素。2025年，要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届三中全会精神。要积极应对人口负增长和老龄化双重加速的趋势，加快构建系统性的制度和政策体系；多措并举，致力于化解就业压力和青年就业困难；加快改革完善收入分配体制机制，确保城乡居民收入增长，更加有效地缩小收入分配差距；深化社会流动相关体制机制改革，加速推动中等收入群体的壮大成长；不断改革创新完善社会治理，促进社会安全形势持续好转。
本报告以翔实的统计数据和实地调查资料为依据，分四大板块，用1篇总报告和18篇分报告，分析讨论2024年中国经济社会运行发展的总体状况和未来形势。总报告分析了2024年中国经济社会发展的主要成就和问题，以及2025年和今后一个时期的经济社会发展趋势和需要，提出了应对挑战和难题的若干对策建议。第二板块为发展篇，由6篇报告组成，比较全面地分析了2024年我国居民收入和消费、劳动就业、社会保障事业、教育改革、社会治安形势以及公共卫生事业等领域的发展和挑战。第三板块为调查篇，包括7篇调查报告，这些报告分别以翔实的调查数据，比较全面地分析了当前中国社会发展质量状况、居民数字素养状况、居民文化发展满意度、消费维权状况，也考察了当代中国青年的灵活就业状况、低碳消费状况以及大学生的心理健康状况，许多发现值得高度重视。第四板块为专题篇，由5篇专题报告组成，分别考察了2024年中国互联网舆论场动态、中国新质生产力发展进程中的劳动者状况、食品药品安全形势、城乡融合发展进展以及积极应对老龄化发展状况。在所有这些议题上，各篇分报告都提出了具有针对性的对策建议。
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总报告
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调查篇
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专题篇
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