非洲发展报告No.27（2024～2025）
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2024年，在世界百年变局加速演进，国际形势变乱交织，乌克兰危机、新一轮巴以冲突等地缘政治风险持续升温，贸易保护主义在全球范围内抬头等多重因素叠加、交互作用的背景下，非洲形势呈现出如下特征。
其一，非洲政局总体稳定，但局地安全风险抬头。2024年被视为非洲“超级大选年”，年内，南非、阿尔及利亚、乍得、科摩罗、毛里塔尼亚等13个国家举行总统或议会选举，其中塞内加尔、博茨瓦纳、毛里求斯、加纳4个国家实现政权党际更替。虽然上述国家的选举存在不同程度的纷争，但总体平稳有序，选举结果也为各方所接受，这表明非洲选举政治渐趋成熟，和平发展成为绝大多数非洲国家的政治诉求。尽管非洲政局总体基本稳定，但受内外因素影响，个别国家和局部地区的政治及安全形势依然堪忧，具体表现在：布基纳法索、马里和尼日尔等国军政权均大幅延长“还政于民”的政治过渡期，增加了其政局走势的不确定性；苏丹内部和刚果（金）东部地区武装冲突持续，不但破坏了两国内部稳定，且对地区局势造成重大冲击；非洲反恐形势依然严峻，尤以萨赫勒地区、非洲之角、大湖地区和莫桑比克北部为甚。从趋势来看，2025年非洲政治与安全形势仍将维系总体稳定、局地动荡的基调，非洲国家走出政治与安全形势动荡的阴霾仍任重道远。
其二，非洲经济温和复苏，但面临的挑战依然严峻。非洲经济经历了连续两年下滑之后，2024年止跌回升，全年经济增长3.2%，且有16个国家的经济增速超过5%。非洲经济向好主要得益于国际大宗商品价格趋稳，输入性通胀压力减小，加之多数非洲国家积极推进财政整顿，部分国家成功进行债务重组，从而在一定程度上抑制了通货膨胀，减轻了债务负担。此外，在经历了数年低迷后，非洲吸引的国际投资大幅增加，国际贸易和国际收支状况也得到一定程度改善。多数非洲国家的政治环境稳定有序，即便那些政权更迭的国家，也能顺利实现政权平稳交接。非洲经济虽然展现出较强的发展韧性，但喜中有忧，突出体现在，非洲内部发展不平衡、发展融资短缺、气候灾害等问题依旧，部分国家还面临高通胀与高债务的双重挑战，个别国家因冲突引发经济严重衰退。2025年，非洲经济虽仍维持复苏势头，但美国贸易保护主义导致的全球经济波动以及非洲自身经济的脆弱性，成为非洲经济持续复苏的阻力。
其三，非洲联合自强势头强劲，战略自主性持续提升。在大变局背景下，作为全球南方国家最为集中的大陆，非洲国家高举泛非主义旗帜，持续推进区域一体化进程，突出体现在非盟出台《2063年议程》第二个十年实施计划（2024～2033），已有48国批准非洲大陆自贸区协定。2024年非洲对外关系新趋势突出体现在通过自主战略规划和参与国际议程来拓展战略自主性的潜在空间。这一努力具体反映在两个方面：一是平台塑造，即在与域外合作伙伴的合作机制日益遵循“非洲+1”模式的基础上，进一步整合并朝着以非洲为核心的非洲全球伙伴关系平台方向发展；二是议题塑造，即在继续将自身诉求融入包括二十国集团和金砖国家合作机制在内的国际机制的同时，在联合国未来峰会、第四次发展筹资问题国际会议及更为长远的可持续发展议程后续规划等国际发展规划努力中积极表达非洲关切。但是，非洲战略自主性努力本身也面临诸多限制，尤其是自身弱小的实力在面对大国竞争压力时，为图“左右逢源”，有可能扭曲甚至将其战略自主性追求异化为谈判筹码。
2024年，中非合作论坛北京峰会成功举行，双方领导人共商中非关系发展大计，中国同所有非洲建交国的双边关系提升到战略关系层面，中非整体关系定位提升至新时代全天候中非命运共同体，中非双方携手推进“六个现代化”和“十大伙伴行动”。一年来，中非各领域交往与合作稳步推进：中非政治互信持续巩固，务实合作不断深化，人文交流日益密切，双方在涉及彼此核心利益和重大关切问题上相互支持。中非友好合作关系为发展中国家联合自强树立了新标杆，成为引领全球南方合作、维护国际公平正义的典范。2025年是中非合作论坛北京峰会成果落实开局之年，中非双方将携手努力，推动务实合作迈向更高层次。
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