人口高质量发展评价报告(2025)
| 书 名: |
人口高质量发展评价报告(2025) |
| 英 文 名: |
REPORT ON THE EVALUATION FOR HIGH QUALITY POPULATION DEVELOPMENT (2025)
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| 作 者: |
沙勇周建芳 主编 |
| I S B N: |
978-7-5228-6913-1 |
| 丛 书 名: |
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| 关 键 词: |
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| 出版时间: |
2025年12月 |
中文摘要
全球人口格局正经历深刻变革,部分国家已进入人口负增长阶段,区域分化显著,出生预期寿命提高与生育率下降加速老龄化,国际移民增长对多数国家人口总量影响有限。我国人口则呈现总量达峰后持续负增长、少子老龄化及区域人口增减分化的特征,推动人口高质量发展成为实现中国式现代化的必然要求与重要支撑。本书延续2024年依据专家咨询法和熵权法确定的评价指标体系,对118个国家、中国31个省份和281个设区市,从人口素质发展、人口经济发展、人口生活质量、人口宜居环境和全民共享发展五个分维度展开评估。
中国五个分维度指数分别为13.91、3.22、5.80、8.12、4.31。省级层面,人口高质量发展指数平均值为43.62,高指数省份集中在东南沿海地区。设区市人口高质量发展指数呈“金字塔”式分布,高指数城市少,中等指数城市占主体,低指数城市多。从各维度看,全球人口素质区域分化明显,发达国家凭借人口健康预期寿命、教育水平及高新技术产出优势占据前列,国内大城市极化效应突出,与地方经济水平、人才集聚度高度关联,中西部地区面临教育资源不足、创新生态薄弱等短板,可通过差异化区域协同、科技飞地园区等路径缩小差距。
在人口经济发展方面,国际上卢森堡、瑞士、爱尔兰等国家相对靠前,国内省级层面上海、北京、浙江等省份,设区市层面深圳、无锡等城市人口经济发展水平较高。我国聚焦“银发经济”,相关政策从侧重基础养老服务逐步拓展至全面促进产业发展,各地也探索出具有区域特色的银发经济发展典型模式,以适应老龄化国情、激发市场活力。人口生活质量发展可借鉴国际如西班牙慢食社交地中海饮食文化、法国度假哲学等经验,及国内相关政策与案例优化提升路径。
人口宜居环境的全球发展水平层级分化,中国正从“以环境换增长”向“以绿色促发展”转型,在省级和设区市层面呈现自东南沿海向西北内陆递减的梯度,深圳“资本技术驱动型”与三亚“自然禀赋驱动型”城市展现多元路径,还可参考美国加利福尼亚州大气治理、德国低碳建筑更新等国际经验,以及长沙“点长制”空气治理、厦门综保区等国内案例,构建混合治理体系,实施差异化政策。
在全民共享发展方面,国际上其指数分布与人均GDP排名有一定的正相关性,中国基尼系数的排名落后于劳动者报酬占GDP比重;国内省级和设区市层面,其指数与人均GDP有一定的负相关性,需深化收入分配改革、优化“人、地、钱”要素配置、加大教育财政投入。
人口安全面临多重挑战,2022年我国进入人口负增长状态,人口负增长会威胁人口自身赓续安全发展,冲击现代化产业体系与城市体系,加速家庭结构解体并影响社会管理及文化传承,增加边境地区管理难度,影响国防安全,需树立国家人口安全意识、提升生育水平、加大人力资本投资、优化区域人口分布。
本书全面描述世界与中国人口发展总体态势,聚焦2025年人口高质量发展关键议题,为世界与中国人口高质量发展的量化评价提供基本参考,也为相关政策制定提供参考。
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