南亚地区发展报告（2024）

2023年，南亚地区进入选举周期，8国中有6国进入选举年或备选年。马尔代夫和不丹顺利举行了选举。马尔代夫进步党和人民国家大会党组成的进步大会联盟的候选人穆罕默德·穆伊兹当选第八任总统；不丹人民民主党和缘庆党在国民议会初选中胜出，赢得了2024年大选资格。而印度、孟加拉国、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡的各主要政党围绕大选展开了激烈的竞争，南亚地区政治生态酝酿新的变化。

印度各主要政党在9个邦的议会选举中展开激烈竞争，印度人民党在邦一级的政治版图再次扩大，为2024年大选奠定了良好的基础，而国大党在卡纳塔克和特伦甘纳两邦赢得过半席位，政治复兴再现曙光。孟加拉国民族主义党抵制2024年大选，人民联盟党领导人谢赫·哈西娜有望四度连任总理。巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫解散了国民议会，将权力移交给看守政府直到下次选举。斯里兰卡地方选举延滞，引发反对党和社会抗议。维克勒马辛哈和拉贾帕克萨的政治联盟同反对党人民力量和人民解放阵线间的矛盾进一步扩大。此外，尼泊尔普拉昌达政府两次通过众议院信任投票，政局趋于平稳；阿富汗塔利班政权进一步巩固“伊斯兰制度”。

2023年，南亚地区经济的不平衡增长态势进一步扩大，印度与其他南亚国家的发展差异更加明显。印度经济保持了较强的增长韧性，出口增长显著。全球旅游业的复苏拉动了马尔代夫、不丹和尼泊尔的经济增长，而孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦以及阿富汗的经济发展则面临不同程度的困难和挑战。其中，孟加拉国和斯里兰卡的经济活动仍然受到国际收支危机的影响，巴基斯坦工业产出持续下降，财政赤字和通胀率持续居高不下。这三国积极实施国际货币基金组织支持的政策计划，控制资本外流和改善债务可持续性。与此同时，阿富汗经济状况依然不容乐观，约2/3的阿富汗家庭在维持基本生活方面面临重大挑战。

2023年，南亚国家间关系有起有落。印度与斯里兰卡、尼泊尔高层访问不断，不丹、孟加拉国继续保持与印度的友好关系。阿富汗关闭其驻印度的大使馆，印阿关系复杂微妙。印度和马尔代夫因马尔代夫要求印度撤回驻军而发生了外交纷争。巴基斯坦和印度关系依旧低落。域外关系方面，不丹与中国积极推进边界谈判工作，并取得实质性进展；印度与美国进一步加强双边关系，合作势头更盛；印度与加拿大因加拿大籍锡克教领袖遭暗杀事件引发外交风波；孟加拉国、尼泊尔与日本的合作关系进一步深化。

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书名：	南亚地区发展报告（2024）
英文名：	ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTH ASIA （2024）
作者：	郑启芬方婕主编;云南省社会科学院中国（昆明）南亚东南亚研究院组织编写
I S B N：	978-7-5228-5126-6
丛书名：
关键词：	南亚地区选举经济复苏外交发展
出版时间：	2025年12月