中国气象经济发展报告（2025）
| 书 名： |
中国气象经济发展报告（2025） |
| 英 文 名： |
REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S METEOROLOGICAL ECONOMY （2025）
|
| 作 者： |
中国气象服务协会 组织编写 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5228-7032-8 |
| 丛 书 名： |
|
| 关 键 词： |
气象经济 气象产业 气象产值核算 气象产业规模 气候影响评估 |
| 出版时间： |
2026年04月 |
中文摘要
《中国气象经济发展报告（2025）》聚焦气象产业系统结构、气象经济规模核算和气候变化影响评估的方法与实践，对气象产业分类、气象经济规模评估方法、气候变化对社会经济系统的影响等气象经济关键基础性问题做了深入系统研究。
基于国际和国家通用产业分类标准，本书将气象产业定义为主要从事气象相关经济活动的所有生产单位的集合，提出了气象产业分类结构化、完整性和再分类的原则和方法，系统梳理了气象产业的基本内容和结构，厘清了气象产业与气象事业之间的关系，明确了气象产业边界，为系统性气象产业研究和气象产业规模统计核算提供了重要基础性依据。
借鉴海洋生产总值（GOP）和生态生产总值（GEP）核算方法，从经济规模核算方法论角度，将气象经济划分为对气候资源的直接利用产出、气象装备产业产出、气象工程技术产业产出及气象服务业产出等核算对象，采取以直接核算法、剥离法及机会成本法为基础的混合核算框架，试图为气象产业总体产出的价值量化提供系统方法论。利用中国气候变化综合评估模型，系统性地就气候变化对社会经济系统影响作出了分析评估。针对不同温室气体排放情景量化了气候变化对农业、生态、水资源、海岸带和人体健康可能造成的直接和间接影响，通过识别气候变异程度和社会经济脆弱性的时空异质性，揭示了全球与区域层面气候风险的演变特征。
与此同时，本书呈现了气象经济重点领域的发展现状、气象经济在国民经济重点行业和气候资源开发利用方面的实践案例，以及作为现代气象产业创新驱动力的气象科技发展进程。附录部分整理遴选了2024年以来我国气象经济大事记。
到2035年，我国气象产业总体规模有望达到或突破万亿元量级；加快建立系统的气象产业国家统计制度和针对不同类型气象经济规模核算的方法论体系，是推动气象经济产业发展的重要基础性工作；未来气候变化对社会经济产生的影响将呈现风险加剧与区域不平等性扩大的双重趋势，需构建并强化跨区域的减缓与适应协同策略体系，增强系统韧性，保障各地粮食安全、生态稳定、水源供应与公共健康，促进社会经济可持续发展。
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