甘肃经济发展分析与预测（2026）
中文摘要
2025年，甘肃省全面贯彻落实习近平总书记对甘肃重要讲话重要指示批示精神，深入实施“四强”行动，着力打造“七地一屏一通道”，持续激活经济增长“主引擎”，培育积蓄高质量发展“新动能”，聚焦营商环境攻坚畅通“大循环”，经济运行呈现向高攀升、向新聚能、向优迈进的积极态势，农业生产增量提质，工业生产质效同升，服务业活力增强，基础设施投资和制造业技改投资加速增长，出口突破性增长，消费市场稳步向好，财政收支同步增长，城乡收入比显著缩小，改善性消费支出明显增长。
本年度报告重点研究了甘肃经济总体运行、行业发展、重大专题、热点调查等，分析和总结了2025年及“十四五”时期甘肃经济运行特征和问题，预测和展望了2026年及“十五五”规划时期甘肃经济发展走势和前景，并针对现状、问题、发展目标提出了理论与实践相结合的应用对策建议。
总报告分析了2025年及“十四五”期间甘肃农业、工业、现代服务业、投资、消费、对外贸易、财政金融、居民收入等主要经济指标变化情况，预测了2026年甘肃主要经济指标走势，提出了相应对策建议。行业篇主要针对甘肃农业与农村经济、工业、现代服务业、财政金融业、固定资产投资、对外贸易等六个方面，进行深度调查分析，提出了促进相关行业和产业发展的理论对策。专题篇主要围绕甘肃打造全国区域性现代制造业基地、打造东中部产业向西转移重要承接地、壮大耐心资本助推新能源产业发展、实施“两新”政策提振消费的长效机制、数字经济发展评价及推进数实融合、发展低空经济、促进民营经济发展等七个方面进行了专题研究，提出了加快壮大实体经济、数字经济、民营经济、战略性新兴产业及培育资本市场、消费市场的战略对策。调查篇侧重就甘肃新材料产业、生物制药产业、现代物流发展与降低物流成本、“三高”企业培育等进行了基层调查和分析，突出问题导向，提出前瞻性建议。
“十四五”期间甘肃省高质量发展速度持续性、显著性加快，经济总量不断实现新突破，年均增量千亿元；经济发展实力进一步增强。2025年前三季度生产总值增速居全国第2位，连续15个季度高于全国平均水平。加力建设现代寒旱特色农业先行基地，“牛羊菜果薯药粮种”增量提质；现代化产业体系日益完善，先进制造业集群加速壮大，加速焕新升级传统产业，新兴产业聚能起势，规模以上工业增加值增速居全国第3位，新能源装机规模、绿电外送规模、智能算力规模均走在全国前列；现代服务业增量放大，新型服务业活力提升；基础设施投资、制造业技改投资快速增长；加快建设国家向西开放战略通道进程，对共建“一带一路”国家进出口增速高于全国平均水平；财政收支同步增长，金融市场存贷余额增加；居民收入稳步增长，城乡收入比缩小至2.03，改善性消费支出明显增长。与此同时，甘肃仍存在固定资产投资增长进入低谷期，壮大实体经济根基压力大；工业营业成本增加，企业利税总额增长空间缩小；扩内需促消费不及预期，经济发展的市场支撑力转弱等突出问题。
2026年，甘肃要全面贯彻党的二十届四中全会作出的战略部署，坚持以经济建设为中心，突出“扩量”“创新”“强韧”“融合”“协同”，着力构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系；加快产业深度变革和增长方式转型，构建外向型经济产业竞争基础；以扩大内需和实现区域市场一体化为方向，创新全国统一大市场建设模式；加快构筑甘肃经济长期稳定增长的要素基础和产业优势。
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