甘肃社会发展分析与预测（2026）
书 名： 甘肃社会发展分析与预测（2026）
英 文 名： ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ON SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF GANSU （2026）
作 者： 陈永胜 马东平 主编; 甘肃省社会科学院 组织编写
I S B N： 978-7-5228-6798-4
丛 书 名：
关 键 词： 社会发展 社会建设 社会治理 甘肃省
出版时间： 2026年01月
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中文摘要
《甘肃社会发展分析与预测（2026）》是“甘肃蓝皮书”系列成果之一，由甘肃省社会科学院组织相关科研人员撰写。本书坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，立足甘肃省情实际，全面回顾了2025年甘肃社会建设取得的具体成就，分析和梳理甘肃社会发展中面临的潜在问题，尝试提出对策建议，为进一步思考和认识甘肃社会发展提供参考。
全书分为“总报告”“发展篇”“专题篇”“调查篇”四个部分，由16篇报告组成。发展篇通过对甘肃人口老龄化、提振消费、社会保障经办服务数字化转型、就业公共服务体系构建和基层社会治理创新实践的分析，认为甘肃省在人口结构变化（老龄化）和经济转型升级的大背景下，致力于通过数字技术赋能、服务体系完善和基层治理创新，构建一个更具韧性、更富活力、更加公平的社会发展新格局。发展篇的核心逻辑是以稳固的社会保障和就业体系为基石，以提振消费为引擎，以高效的基层治理为保障，全面推动甘肃省经济社会高质量发展。专题篇侧重具体领域，对甘肃城镇居民生育意愿现状及影响因素、甘肃新型城镇化进程中农业转移人口市民化提升路径、甘肃农村高价彩礼治理政策与实践模式、甘肃文旅促进民族交往交流交融的实践路径和生态补偿机制下甘肃农牧民生计方式转变的社会适应等进行深入研究。调查篇聚焦社会热点问题，对甘肃困境儿童关爱服务的社会支持、甘肃基层治理工作者的数字素养和治理成效、黄河国家文化公园甘肃段“生态+文化”复合型社区营造、甘肃中小学科学教育以及流动人口职业教育培训需求与供给匹配度等展开研究分析。
本书认为，2025～2026年，甘肃社会发展面临的宏观环境更趋复杂，在国家重大战略强力牵引和数字化变革深度驱动下，总体来看，甘肃社会将呈现“稳中有压、破立并行”的态势。“稳”在于党的坚强领导和持续政策投入；“压”体现为社会多元诉求带来的治理压力；“破”在于通过制度创新打破传统路径依赖；“立”在于建立以数字、绿色、人文为导向的新发展范式。社会发展的重心将全面转向提升质量、效率和人民的获得感。
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