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| 书 名： | 数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期） | ||||
| 英 文 名： | The Journal of Quantitative Economics | ||||
| 作 者： | 张屹山 | ||||
| I S B N： | 978-7-5201-3302-9 | ||||
| 关 键 词： | 数量经济学 实践研究相结合 定量分析 定性分析 国内外交流 | ||||
| 出版日期： | 2018-10-01 | ||||
中文摘要
文章列表
产业结构变动是经济增长的内在需求和重要动力。本文以1993～2014年中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）的面板数据作为研究样本，从产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化两个角度考察中国产业结构的变动趋势及其区域差异，并借助面板平滑门限回归模型实证研究产业结构变动对经济增长的非线性影响机制。实证结果表明，产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化对经济增长的影响均存在显著的门限效应，并分别呈现“U”形和倒“U”形两种相反的非线性特征，产业结构高级化对经济增长的“升级效应”可以有效弥补产业结构布局失衡带来的“扭曲效应”。可见，将政策调节的力度控制在合理区间、确保政策措施和市场机制的协同并行，是实现经济稳步增长和可持续发展的重要保障。
,AbstractEN:The change of industrial structure is the inherent demand and driving force for economic growth.This paper takes the panel data of 31 provinces（municipalities and autonomous regions）in China from 1993 to 2014 as the research sample，from the rationalization and optimization indexes investigates the change laws and regional differences of China's industrial structure.Furthermore，this paper empirically studies the nonlinear effect of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure on economic growth using panel smooth threshold regression model（PSTR）.The results show that，the influence of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure on economic growth exist a significant threshold effect and presents two opposite U-shaped nonlinear characteristic of U-shaped and inverted U-shaped.The upgrading effect of industrial structure to economic growth can effectively compensate for the“distortion effect”brought about by the imbalance of industrial structure layout.Therefore，controlling the intensity of policy adjustment in a reasonable range，and ensuring that policy measures and market mechanisms are coordinated and parallel，is an important guarantee for achieving economic growth.
,KeyWords:4693,5194,451991,451992,EKeyWords:4695,5295,451993,451994,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10274702,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120181102X20184080001_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-11-29 09:38:15.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:17:02.0,HitCount:15,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10274707,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:{"邓创":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"邓创（1979-），男，汉族，湖南益阳人，吉林大学数量经济研究中心教授，博士生导师，数量经济学博士，理论经济学博士后，主要研究方向为宏观经济计量分析与预测
"},"赵珂":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"赵珂（1997-），女，汉族，河南睢县人，吉林大学商学院硕士研究生。
"},"杨婉芬":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"杨婉芬（1995-），女，汉族，湖北天门人，吉林大学商学院硕士研究生。
"},"Deng Chuang":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhao Ke":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Yang Wanfen":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国产业结构变动对经济增长的非线性影响机制——基于面板平滑门限回归模型的实证研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-3302-9,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国产业结构变动对经济增长的非线性影响机制——基于面板平滑门限回归模型的实证研究,_RowNo:4基于人民币国际化、汇率和汇率预期理论机制分析，运用VAR模型和随机波动时变参数向量自回归模型实证分析2005年12月至2017年3月人民币国际化、汇率和汇率预期之间的联动关系。研究结果表明：在平均水平上人民币汇率、汇率预期和人民币国际化之间存在同向影响关系，但在金融危机以前，汇率预期对人民币国际化影响为负。研究结果还表明：人民币国际化和汇率对汇率预期的正向影响较为稳定，且短期影响最大；人民币汇率在短期对人民币国际化有较大的正向作用，但中长期会逐步衰减；汇率预期对人民币国际化的正向影响具有持久性，且随着时间推移逐步增强。在汇率预期管理过程中，应重视即期汇率的短期作用，兼顾人民币国际化影响；而在推进人民币国际化过程中，应加强汇率预期管理。
,AbstractEN:Based on the theoretical analysis of RMB internationalization，exchange rate and exchange rate expectation，this paper uses the VAR model and the stochastic volatility time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to empirically analyze the linkage among RMB internationalization，exchange rate and exchange rate expectation from December 2005 to March 2017.The result shows that，there is a same direction relationship between RMB exchange rate，exchange rate expectation and internationalization of RMB on average.But before the financial crisis，the exchange rate expectation has a negative effect on RMB internationalization.The result also shows that，the positive impact of RMB internationalization and exchange rate on exchange rate expectation is stable，and the short-term impact is the largest.The RMB exchange rate has a positive effect on the internationalization of the RMB in the short term，but it will gradually decline in the medium and long term.The positive impact of exchange rate expectations on RMB internationalization is persistent，and increases gradually with time.In the process of exchange rate expectation management，we should pay attention to the short-term effect of spot exchange rate at first，then the influence of RMB internationalization should be taken into account.When promoting RMB internationalization，we should focus on exchange rate expectation management.
,KeyWords:6472,451995,5183,451996,EKeyWords:6475,4984,451997,335697,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10274712,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120181102X20184080001_002,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-11-29 09:38:16.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:17:02.0,HitCount:6,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10274718,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"董晨君":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"董晨君（1983-），吉林白山人，东北师范大学经济学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为国际金融、世界经济
"},"滕建州":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"滕建州（1975-），湖南凤凰人，东北师范大学经济学院副院长，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为世界经济、国际金融。
"},"刘志蛟":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘志蛟（1988-），湖北咸宁人，东北师范大学经济学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为国际金融。
"},"Dong Chenjun":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Teng Jianzhou":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Zhijiao":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:人民币国际化与汇率预期关系研究——基于SV-TVP-VAR模型,ISBN:978-7-5201-3302-9,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:人民币国际化与汇率预期关系研究——基于SV-TVP-VAR模型,_RowNo:5为适应经济发展“新常态”，货币当局需要有序渐进地推动货币政策调控工具平稳转型，而转型的核心是从传统的数量型调控工具转向价格型调控工具。在量价转换背景下，厘清二者对实际经济的效应具有重要的现实意义。本文运用非线性断点回归模型研究在不同区制内数量型货币政策和价格型货币政策对实际经济增长的影响，结果发现，在2001年第一季度到2016年第四季度的研究样本上存在三个变异时点并在不同区制内二者对实际经济的效应存在时变性，这也充分表明货币调控工具的转型并非一日之功，量价调控工具的综合应用将是未来较长一段时间调控的主旋律。
,AbstractEN:In order to adapt to the new normal in economic development，the monetary authorities must progressively promote the transformation of monetary policy control tools in an orderly manner，and the core of the transition is from the traditional quantitative control tools to price control tools. Under the background of quantity price transformation，it is of great practical significance to clarify the effect of them on the actual economy. In this paper，the nonlinear breakpoint regression model is used to study the effect of quantitative monetary policy and price-based monetary policy on real economic growth in different periods. The results show that there are three variations in the research samples from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2016 and the effect of quantitative and price-based monetary policies on the real economy is time-varying，which also fully shows that the combined application of quantitative and price-based control tools will be the main theme of economic regulation in the future.
,KeyWords:451998,451999,452000,452001,315455,EKeyWords:452002,452003,452004,452005,315457,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10274721,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120181102X20184080001_003,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-11-29 09:38:16.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:17:02.0,HitCount:3,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10274727,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"张小宇":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"张小宇（1979-），男，吉林大学数量经济研究中心副教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为宏观金融计量
"},"刘永富":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘永富（1933-），男，吉林大学商学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为宏观经济计量。
"},"王浩宇":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王浩宇（1994-），男，吉林大学商学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为宏观经济计量。
"},"Zhang Xiaoyu":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Yongfu":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wang Haoyu":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:量价转换背景货币政策效应时变性研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-3302-9,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:量价转换背景货币政策效应时变性研究,_RowNo:6基于Alkire和Foster（A-F）提出的多维贫困指数框架理论，运用中国家庭追踪调查数据（CFPS），分别采用等权重法、变异系数法和BP神经网络法选取多维贫困指标体系中各指标权重，测度和分解我国农村地区的多维贫困指数，并采用加总误差法建立权重优劣的评判标准。研究结论表明：三种权重选取法所测度的多维贫困指数差异较大，其中多维贫困指数从大到小是按变异系数法、BP神经网络法和等权重法所测得的，说明不同的权重法对多维贫困指数具有不同强度的敏感性；同时，多维贫困指数分解结果显示，不同权重法所得各指标对多维贫困指数的贡献率不同，但按变异系数法和BP神经网络法所得指标贡献率的排名基本一致，而按等权重法所得指标贡献率排名与另外二者相差较大。此外，相较于另外两种权重法，运用BP神经网络法测度的多维贫困指数更精确。本文为测度多维贫困指数时指标权重选取提供了新思路。
,AbstractEN:Based on the multidimensional poverty index（MPI）framework theory proposed by Alkire ＆ Foster（A-F），using the China Family Panel Studies（CFPS）data，respectively，by equal weight method，variation coefficient（VC）approach and BP neural networks method to select the weight of each index in the MPI system，it measures and decomposes the MPI in rural China and evaluation criterion of weight is established by error method. The research results show that three kinds of weight selection method to measure the MPI differences，the MPI from large to small according to weight VC method，BP neural network，that is，the MPI has different intensity sensitivity to different weights. Meanwhile，the MPI decomposition results show that each index from different weights of the MPI contribution rate is different，but according to the VC method and BP neural networks method the contribution rate index ranking is basically the same，and according to the weight of the index contribution rate ranking and the other two are significantly different. In addition，compared to the other two weight methods，the multidimensional poverty index measured by the BP neural network method is more accurate. This paper provides a new idea for the selection of index weights in MPI.
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"},"谢家智":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"谢家智（1967-）男，西南大学经济管理学院，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为农村金融与财政。
"},"舒维佳":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"舒维佳（1988-），女，四川农业大学管理学院，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为公共管理与政策。
"},"Che Sifang":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Xie Jiazhi":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Shu Weijia":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:基于不同权重选取的多维贫困测度与分析,ISBN:978-7-5201-3302-9,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:基于不同权重选取的多维贫困测度与分析,_RowNo:7环境规制是影响绿色经济效率的重要因素。本文基于综合指数法和DEA-Malmquist模型测算了2006～2015年中国30个省（自治区、直辖市）的环境规制强度和绿色经济效率，并采用面板平滑门限回归（PSTR）模型分析了环境规制对我国绿色经济效率的影响。结果显示，我国东部、中部、西部的环境规制强度依次上升，而绿色经济效率增长率依次下降。从整体上看，我国绿色经济效率随环境规制的加强呈现倒“U”形趋势，在越过0.5995的环境规制强度门限值后，环境规制对绿色经济效率的影响由促进变为抑制。从控制变量来看，产业结构对绿色经济效率的影响在越过环境规制强度门限值后由负变为正，而对外开放程度对绿色经济效率的影响与之相反，产业结构优化与对外贸易发展互为补充。因此，为了我国环境规制的合理实施和绿色经济效率的提升，政府应根据东部、中部和西部的环境规制现状、产业结构情况和对外开放程度采取差别政策。
,AbstractEN:Environmental regulation is an important factor affecting the green economic efficiency. This paper estimates the environmental regulation intensity and green economic efficiency of China's 30 provinces（autonomous regions and municipalities）from 2006 to 2015 based on the Synthetic Index Method and the DEA-Malmquist model. The Panel Smooth Threshold Regression（PSTR）Model is used to analyze the impact of environmental regulation on green economic efficiency in China. The results show that the intensity of environmental regulation in the east，central，and west regions of China increased sequentially，while the growth rate of green economy efficiency declined in turn. On the whole，the green economic efficiency in our country shows an inverted“U” trend with the environmental regulation intensity. After exceeding the threshold of environmental regulation intensity of 0.5995，the impact of environmental regulation on green economic efficiency has changed from promotion to suppression. Judging from the control variables，the impact of industrial structure on green economic efficiency changes from negative to positive after exceeding the threshold of environmental regulation intensity，the degree of openness to the outside world has an opposite effect on the green economic efficiency，the optimization of industrial structure complements the development of foreign trade. Therefore，for the reasonable implementation of China's environmental regulation and the improvement of the green economic efficiency，the government should adopt different policies based on the status of environmental regulation，the industrial structure，and the degree of openness to the outside world in the east，central and west regions of China.
,KeyWords:63903,452010,452011,58119,EKeyWords:63927,452012,451994,23797,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10274744,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120181102X20184080001_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-11-29 09:38:17.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:17:02.0,HitCount:15,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10274753,DownCount:4,AuthorInfos:{"齐红倩":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"齐红倩（1962-），女，吉林大学数量经济研究中心暨商学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为微观经济计量、生态经济
"},"陈苗":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"陈苗（1994-），女，吉林大学商学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为环境经济、微观经济计量。
"},"Qi Hongqian":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Chen Miao":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:环境规制对我国绿色经济效率影响的非线性特征,ISBN:978-7-5201-3302-9,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:环境规制对我国绿色经济效率影响的非线性特征,_RowNo:8本文通过基于Copula函数改进后的分位数格兰杰因果检验模型，选取中国内地、韩国、日本、中国台湾和中国香港的股票数据，研究其在不同分位数和分位数区间下的格兰杰因果关系，就股市反馈出来的信息，对股市间传染效应方向进行了分析，并提出需加强防止我国股票市场易被传染的相关政策建议。本文考虑股票数据尖峰、厚尾和非对称性等特征，通过不同的Copula函数对格兰杰因果检验方法进行改进，选取九个分位数，在各分位数进行基于分布的格兰杰因果检验，并提出在分位数区间下进行格兰杰因果检验的方法，对两种方法的检验结果进行了比较。研究发现，沪市分别与韩国、日本、中国台湾、中国香港均在不同分位数上存在双向格兰杰因果关系；日本与沪市的格兰杰因果关系最为显著，在沪市对其他市场的影响方面，沪市对中国香港的格兰杰因果关系最显著，而在其他市场对沪市的影响方面，韩国对沪市的格兰杰因果关系最显著；分布的尾部所体现出来的格兰杰因果关系与中部相比较为显著，尤其需要加以重视。
,AbstractEN:This paper uses the Copula function to study the Granger causality between the inland of China with Korea，Japan，Taiwan and Hong Kong of China，under the different quantiles and different quantile intervals. By improving the Granger causal relation test based on the distribution model，give some analysis on the direction of the stock market，and some policy recommendations. We consider the characteristics of the thick and non-symmetry of stock data and improve the Granger causality test method by different Copula functions. The distribution based Granger causality test is carried out at the nine quantiles，and the method of the Granger causality test under the quantile interval is proposed，and the results of the two methods are compared. The results show that there is two-way Granger causal relationship in different quantiles between Shanghai and Korea，Japan，Taiwan and Hong Kong of China. The Granger causality between Japan and Shanghai stock market is the most significant. In the context of Shanghai market on other markets，the Shanghai market exists a significantly Granger causal relationship in Hong Kong，and for the impact of other markets on Shanghai market，South Korea has significant Granger causality to the Shanghai. The Granger causality reflected by the tail of the distribution is quite significant compared with that in the central part，especially the attention should be paid to it.
,KeyWords:452013,452014,452015,EKeyWords:452016,452017,452018,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10274757,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120181102X20184080001_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-11-29 09:38:17.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:17:02.0,HitCount:14,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10274762,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"程宏":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"程宏（1986-），男，江西南昌人，上海立信会计金融学院讲师，主要研究方向为统计方法学习、计算神经科学及金融统计与风险管理
"},"潘文捷":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"潘文捷（1995-），男，上海人，上海对外经贸大学国际商务硕士研究生，主要研究方向为金融数学。
"},"Cheng Hong":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Pan Wenjie":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:基于Copula分位数格兰杰因果检验的股票市场相依性研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-3302-9,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:基于Copula分位数格兰杰因果检验的股票市场相依性研究,_RowNo:9股票流动性和企业创新之间是否存在相互促进的关系？本文基于中国A股市场数据，构建股票流动性与企业创新的相关指标，运用面板数据的实证研究结果表明：股票流动性似乎会增加企业的创新成果，即专利数量，而研发支出作为创新的投入则会受到流动性增强下的抑制，因此，股票流动性似乎是对企业的行为产生影响，这一结论说明股票流动性抑制企业创新的假设得到支持。其背后的影响机制可能是，高的股票流动性源于投机者的行为，追逐短期收益的目的迫使企业管理层可能会放弃创新投资，同时，管理层为避免被收购的威胁，可能会削减创新投资，然而企业已有创新投入下，流动性则迫使研发提高效率。
,AbstractEN:Is there any mutual promotion between stock liquidity and firm innovation？ Based on the China's A-share market data，this paper constructs the related index of stock liquidity and firm innovation. The results of using panel data show that：stock liquidity seems to increase the firm's innovation，which is the number of patents. R＆D expenditure as an innovation input which will be restrained by the enhancement of liquidity. Therefore，the stock liquidity seems to have an impact on the firm's behavior. The result shows that the hypothesis of stock liquidity inhibiting the firm's innovation is supported. The underlying mechanism probable is that high stock liquidity derives from speculators' behavior. The purpose of chasing short-term earnings forces firm management to give up innovative investment while management maybe cut back on innovative investments so that avoid the threat of being acquired. However，if firms have been invested in innovation，liquidity will force research and development to improve efficiency.
,KeyWords:452019,24672,140379,EKeyWords:452020,369624,385380,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10274763,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120181102X20184080001_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-11-29 09:38:17.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:17:02.0,HitCount:10,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10274765,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:{"范卓玮":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"范卓玮（1982-），男，东北财经大学公共管理学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为区域经济与金融
"},"顾振":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"顾振（1993-），男，东北师范大学商学院硕士研究生，主要研究方向为金融和财务决策。
"},"唐亮":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"唐亮（1979-），男，东北师范大学商学院硕士生导师，主要研究方向为金融结构与货币政策。
"},"Fan Zhuowei":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Gu Zhen":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Tang Liang":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:上市公司股票流动性与创新的关联分析,ISBN:978-7-5201-3302-9,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:上市公司股票流动性与创新的关联分析,_RowNo:10空间计量建模中数据类型由截面数据向面板数据的延伸，使科学地构建和遴选内生时空权重矩阵迫在眉睫。首先，在设计基于年份间Moran指数比的包含可变时间效应的内生时空权重矩阵基础上，构建与之结构类似的研究对象矩阵，并基于两个总体的均值之差和方差之比假设检验，阐释内生时空权重矩阵与研究对象矩阵的结构匹配性识别问题。然后，基于内生时空权重矩阵与研究对象矩阵所有元素的相关系数测度及有效性检验，考察二者的有效相关性问题。最后，基于结构匹配性最好原则和有效相关性最高原则，构建内生时空权重矩阵遴选的一般方法，还以1952～2016年中国31个省份的GDP数据为研究对象，在构建基于Queen空间邻接关系、省份间距离、经纬度、经济规模和有限距离等因素的5种内生时空权重矩阵基础上，考察了内生时空权重矩阵遴选的应用问题及其稳健性。结论显示：基于与研究对象矩阵的结构匹配性与有效相关性，可以遴选出最优的内生时空权重矩阵；在涉及中国省级层面GDP相关研究的空间计量实证或经验分析中，其内生时空权重矩阵最好基于省份间距离来构建。
,AbstractEN:In spatial econometric analyses with panel data，it is very important to construct endogenous spatial temporal weight matrices（ESTWMs）. First，this paper constructed different ESTWMs based on kronecker products of different original spatial weight matrices and endogenous temporal weight matrices based on ratios of global Moran's I. This paper also constructed a matrix of dependent variable（DVM）employing the same structure as the ESTWMs. Second，this paper introduced a way to assess the structure matching and the effective correlation between ESTWMs and DVM，and described how to choose an optimal ESTWM by the principles of best structure matching and highest effective correlation. Finally，taking related research concerned GDP in China as an example，this paper applied above method，and selected a best one from five ESTWMs based on different constructing methods. Conclusions show that，it is effective and robust to select an optimal ESTWM based on the principles of best structure matching and highest effective correlation. Also，in the researches concerned GDP in China at the level of provinces，it is better to use distances between provinces to construct endogenous spatial temporal weight matrix.
,KeyWords:452021,452022,452023,452024,452025,EKeyWords:452026,452027,452028,452029,452030,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10274766,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120181102X20184080001_008,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-11-29 09:38:18.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:17:02.0,HitCount:8,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10274768,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"范巧":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"范巧（1983-），男，重庆科技学院法政与经贸学院副教授，中国人民大学中青年骨干教师访问学者（教育部资助），主要研究方向为区域与城市经济发展战略
"},"石敏俊":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"石敏俊（1964-），男，中国人民大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为空间分析与模拟。
"},"Fan Qiao":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Shi Minjun":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:基于结构匹配性和有效相关性的内生时空权重矩阵遴选方法,ISBN:978-7-5201-3302-9,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:基于结构匹配性和有效相关性的内生时空权重矩阵遴选方法,_RowNo:11研究中国实际经济产出与货币流动性对国际大宗商品价格影响路径与程度对于准确识别外在商品价格波动与国内宏观经济变量之间的关系具有重要的现实意义。本文基于1998年1月至2017年2月的月度同比数据，选取世界银行提供的能源和非能源类国际大宗商品价格指数，利用TVP-VAR模型分析我国实际工业产出与银行利率变动对国际大宗商品价格的影响。实证结果表明：我国工业产出变动对能源价格指数的冲击影响明显大于非能源价格指数，国内利率冲击对国际商品价格指数的影响有限，2015年后大宗商品价格对中国经济变量的冲击反应函数呈现复杂性特征。本文相应政策建议是：第一，在分析国际商品价格，尤其是能源类商品价格对中国经济影响时，要充分关注我国工业产出和银行利率变动在短期内对大宗商品价格的冲击作用；第二，在经济新常态背景下，要有效识别中国因素与国际大宗商品价格之间相互作用关系的时变特征与阶段性特性，有利于宏观经济政策制定的有效性。
,AbstractEN:Studying the path and extent of the impact of actual economic output and currency liquidity on international commodity prices in China，it is of great practical significance to accurately identify the relationship between the fluctuation of external commodity prices and domestic macroeconomic variables. Based on the monthly year-on-year data from January 1998 to February 2017，the paper chooses the International Commodity Price Indices of Energy and Non-Energy provided by the World Bank and uses TVP-VAR model to analyze the impact of China's actual industrial output and bank interest rate changes on international commodity prices. The empirical results show that the impact of the changes in China's industrial output on the energy price index is significantly greater than that of non-energy price index. Also the domestic interest rate shocks have a limited impact on the international commodity price index. Furthermore，after 2015，the impulse response function of commodity prices on China's economic variables shows the complexity of characteristics. The relevant policy recommendations in this paper are：First，In the analysis of the impact of international commodity prices，especially energy commodity prices on China's economy，full attention should be paid to the short-term impact of China's industrial output and changes in bank interest rates on commodity prices；Second Under the new normal economy background，to effectively identify the time-varying characteristics and stage characteristics of the interaction between China's factors and international commodity prices，it is important to formulate effective macroeconomic policy.
,KeyWords:96098,452031,452032,356140,EKeyWords:452033,452034,452035,335697,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10274769,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120181102X20184080001_009,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-11-29 09:38:18.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:17:02.0,HitCount:10,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10274771,DownCount:10,AuthorInfos:{"吴翔":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"吴翔（1968-），男，东北电力大学经济管理学院教授，经济学博士，主要研究方向为能源经济学
"},"刘达禹":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘达禹（1988-），男，吉林大学商学院讲师，经济学博士，主要研究方向为宏观经济计量分析。
"},"Wu Xiang":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Dayu":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国因素对国际大宗商品价格波动产生影响吗？——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证检验,ISBN:978-7-5201-3302-9,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国因素对国际大宗商品价格波动产生影响吗？——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证检验,_RowNo:12本文针对金融机构总资产正、负收益率对系统性风险溢出效应的不同影响，构建非对称CoVaR模型，使用尾部极端分位数回归方法估计我国上市银行对金融系统整体风险的溢出效应。研究表明：第一，尾部极端分位数回归方法能有效地刻画上市银行市场价值总资产收益率厚尾非正态分布特征，能准确地度量银行与系统尾部风险联动性；第二，金融机构总资产正、负收益率对系统性风险的影响存在明显的非对称性，负收益率绝对值影响远大于正收益率，且系统性风险与负收益率绝对值的变化呈正向关系；第三，国有制银行、股份制商业银行和区域性地方银行等的平均溢出效应ΔCoVaR，在截面维度上具有较强的协同性，在时间维度上具有周期性和时效性。本文研究为我国金融市场系统性风险的识别、度量及宏观审慎监管提供了有价值的参考。
,AbstractEN:In this paper，the asymmetric CoVaR model is constructed based on the different effects of the positive and negative yield on the systemic risk spillover effect of the total assets of the financial institutions，and the spillover effect of the listed banks on the overall risk of the financial system is estimated by the tail extreme quantile regression method. The results show that：First，the tail extreme quantile regression method can effectively characterize the total return on assets and the fat tail non normal distribution characteristics of the listed bank's market value，and can measure the risk linkage between the banks and the tail of the system accurately；Second，the positive and negative yield of the total assets of financial institutions has obvious asymmetry on the impact of systemic risk. The absolute value of the negative yield is far greater than the positive rate of return，and the positive relationship between the systemic risk and the negative rate of return is positive；Third，the average spillover effect ΔCoVaR of state-owned banks，joint-stock commercial banks and regional local banks has strong synergy in cross-sectional dimension，and has periodic and timeliness in time dimension. This paper provides an effective reference for China's financial market system risk identification，measurement and macro-prudential supervision.
,KeyWords:58069,303557,303556,452036,EKeyWords:130898,303557,452037,452038,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10274772,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120181102X20184080001_010,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-11-29 09:38:18.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:17:02.0,HitCount:19,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10274774,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"张瑞":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"张瑞（1981-），对外经济贸易大学统计学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为金融周期与金融系统风险
"},"刘立新":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘立新（1966-），男，对外经济贸易大学统计学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为金融周期与金融系统风险。
"},"Zhang Rui":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Lixin":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国上市银行系统性风险溢出效应研究——基于极端分位数回归的非对称CoVaR模型,ISBN:978-7-5201-3302-9,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷，第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国上市银行系统性风险溢出效应研究——基于极端分位数回归的非对称CoVaR模型,_RowNo:13
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