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| 书 名： | 数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期） | ||||
| 英 文 名： | THE JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS | ||||
| 作 者： | 张屹山 | ||||
| I S B N： | 978-7-5201-4478-0 | ||||
| 关 键 词： | 数量经济学 金融化 投资 | ||||
| 出版日期： | 2019-04-01 | ||||
中文摘要
《数量经济研究》遵循百花齐放、百家争鸣的方针，坚持理论研究和实践研究相结合、定量分析和定性分析相结合，关注我国社会、经济等领域的重大学科前沿问题，刊登结合中国的实际和现实问题进行深入分析、阐述和探索的高水平研究成果，以加强国内外交流，促进学术繁荣，为数量经济学的理论与应用研究提供平台，为我国的社会主义现代化建设服务。
文章列表
纵观世界经济发展演变的进程，金融化是伴随市场经济发展和金融深化的必然趋势，具有普遍性和规律性。本文基于金融内生视角，构建最优金融化形成与经济增长的动态机制，对最优金融化的动态特征、偏离稳态及恢复机制进行分析，并进一步通过构建一个综合性的金融化指数，运用马尔科夫区制转移模型和门限回归模型实证分析金融化对经济增长影响的非线性特征，结果表明：（1）金融化对经济增长具有明显的“区制转移”特征；（2）金融化对经济增长存在明显的“双门限”效应。这两种非线性模型都能较好地解释近年来我国资金“脱实入虚”的现象。
,AbstractEN:Looking at the evolution of the world economy，financialization is an inevitable trend accompanied by the development of market economy and financial deepening. It has universality and regularity. From the financial endogenous perspective，this paper constructs a dynamic mechanism for optimal formation of financialization and economic growth，and analyzes the dynamic characteristics of optimal financialization，deviation from steady state and recovery mechanisms，and further builds a comprehensive financial index. Then applying MS model and TR model to empirically analyze the non-linear correlation between financialization and economic growth，the results show that：（1） The impact of financialization on economic growth has obvious “regional transfer” characteristics；（2） Financialization has obvious “double-threshold” effect on economic growth. Both of the two non-linear models can well explain the phenomenon of “shift from real economy to virtual economy” in our country in recent years.
,KeyWords:60108,5194,487528,EKeyWords:60111,5295,498868,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10910148,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190501X20185595001_000_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-06-05 09:14:48.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:46:43.0,HitCount:9,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10910156,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:{"田新民":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"田新民（1967- ），男，首都经济贸易大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为金融工程。
"},"武晓婷":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"武晓婷（1988- ），女，首都经济贸易大学经济学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为金融工程。
"},"Tian Xinmin":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wu Xiaoting":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:金融化对经济增长的非线性影响研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-4478-0,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:金融化对经济增长的非线性影响研究,_RowNo:4当前我国正处于经济转型时期，各地经济发展状态复杂，研究地区经济发展收敛问题对促进地区持续协调发展具有重大战略意义。本文基于空间计量视角考虑了我国经济过程变化中的收敛问题，经过对全国31个省级面板2004～2016年的数据分析发现，全国经济发展呈现显著的空间相关性，通过构建空间滞后模型发现人均GDP不存在σ收敛，且地区间不存在绝对β收敛，考虑相对收敛情况发现仅有东部、中部地区存在收敛趋势，东部地区收敛速度缓慢，内部出现分化，中部地区收敛趋势显著。本文探究性地使用空间杜宾模型对该问题进行研究，发现变量的空间影响将加速收敛趋势。
,AbstractEN:At present，China’s economy is in the period of economic transformation，and the state of economic development in various regions tends to be more complex and changeable. The state of convergence of regional economic development has important strategic significance for the coordinated development of different regions. Based on the perspective of spatial，this paper discusses the convergence of economic process changes in China. Through the analysis of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016，the national economic development shows a significant spatial correlation. By constructing a spatial lag model，it is found that there has no σ convergence in China’s personal GDP. It is also founded that there is no absolute convergence of β between regions. Considering the relative convergence，only the eastern and central regions have convergence tendency. The eastern region has a slow convergence rate，it has a divergence trend，the central region convergence trend is significant. This paper explores the problem using the spatial Durbin model and finds that the spatial impact of the variables will accelerate the convergence trend.
,KeyWords:303543,386066,387344,EKeyWords:351053,386067,426081,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10910161,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190501X20185595001_000_002,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-06-05 09:14:49.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:46:43.0,HitCount:7,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10910180,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:{"王西贝":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王西贝（1992- ），女，天津财经大学研究生，主要研究方向为计量经济学。
"},"马薇":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"马薇（1957- ），女，天津财经大学教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为数量经济学。
"},"Wang Xibei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Ma Wei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:空间计量视角下的中国经济收敛状态分析,ISBN:978-7-5201-4478-0,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:空间计量视角下的中国经济收敛状态分析,_RowNo:5融资约束对企业投融资活动的抑制作用已得到社会的广泛关注和认同，但就其成因，无论是理论还是实证研究仍存在一定分歧。本文利用2009～2016年在中国A股上市的企业数据，采用随机前沿模型从市场因素和非市场因素两方面检验了融资约束成因。实证结果表明，我国上市企业普遍面临较为严重的融资约束，信息不对称作为传统融资约束理论所强调的重要市场因素也是我国上市企业融资约束的显著成因。除此之外，区域经济发展、所有权性质和企业规模等非市场因素均与企业融资约束程度显著相关，且文中针对上市企业得到的结论同样适用于非上市企业。最后本文根据实证结果分别从企业和政府层面提出了缓解企业融资约束的政策建议。
,AbstractEN:The restraint of financing constraints on corporate investment and financing activities has been widely concerned，but there are still some divergences on contributing factors in the existing theoretical and empirical research. This paper uses stochastic frontier model to examine the causes of financing constraints from both market and non-market factors with the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2016. The empirical analysis shows that Chinese listed companies generally face serious financing constraints. As an important market factors emphasized by traditional financing constraints theory information asymmetry is a significant cause of financing constraints of Chinese listed companies. In addition，the non-market factors such as regional economic development，ownership characteristics and enterprise size are significantly related to the degree of financing constraints. The above conclusions drawn from the listed companies are also applicable to unlisted companies. According to the empirical results，this paper puts forward some suggestions from the perspective of enterprises and government respectively to relieve financing constraints.
,KeyWords:304715,92385,487532,EKeyWords:397582,366786,487533,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10910187,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190501X20185595001_000_003,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-06-05 09:14:50.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:46:43.0,HitCount:24,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10910201,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:{"于震":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"于震（1976- ），男，吉林大学中国国有经济研究中心研究员，吉林大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为宏观金融理论与政策、应用计量经济学。
"},"王肖梦":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王肖梦（1993- ），女，吉林大学经济学院硕士研究生，主要研究方向为宏观金融理论与政策。
"},"刘淼":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘淼（1978- ），女，吉林财经大学金融学院副教授，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为宏观金融理论与政策。
"},"Yu Zhen":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wang Xiaomeng":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Miao":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国上市企业融资约束成因研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-4478-0,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国上市企业融资约束成因研究,_RowNo:6以价格波动率表征市场不确定性，本文通过构造基于异质性交易者模型和运用SVAR-H-SV模型分别从理论和实证角度分析了股市和汇市间市场不确定性的跨市场效应。研究发现：理论上股市和汇市的市场不确定性主要通过基本面渠道和风险规避渠道产生跨市场效应。样本期内，市场不确定性的跨市场效应主要通过交易者的风险规避渠道传导，汇市波动率上升在短期内会显著地推动股价上涨，但股市波动率对汇率的贬值效应并不显著。最后，提出加强资本流动管理和完善汇率形成机制的政策建议。
,AbstractEN:In this paper，we use behavioral financial model and SVAR-H-SV model to analyze the spillover effects of market uncertainty，provided by price volatility，among domestic equity market and FX market，from theoretical and empirical perspectives，respectively. We find that，market uncertainty among two markets influence the other market principally through fundamental channel and traders’ risk aversion channel. We，although，confirm that the risk aversion is the dominant channel by Chinese data，only FX market volatility has significant and positive role on equity return，while vague post of equity market volatility on FX return. At last，we draw some policy implications.
,KeyWords:4528,487534,487535,EKeyWords:59507,498903,498905,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10910206,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190501X20185595001_000_004,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-06-05 09:14:50.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:46:43.0,HitCount:4,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10910212,DownCount:2,AuthorInfos:{"刘林":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘林（1983- ），男，太原理工大学经管学院副教授，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为资产价格波动。
"},"Liu Lin":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:国内股市与汇市的市场不确定性存在跨市场效应吗？,ISBN:978-7-5201-4478-0,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:国内股市与汇市的市场不确定性存在跨市场效应吗？,_RowNo:7本文利用中国工业企业微观数据，构建包含Probit模型的联立方程，检验研发创新背景下企业全要素生产率的提升到底源自对外直接投资的自我选择效应还是学习效应，并根据投资区位和对外直接投资类型的不同，对实证结果进行稳健性检验。结果显示：对外直接投资的自我选择效应和学习效应显著存在，且学习效应占主导地位，当企业向发达国家（地区）投资、对外投资类型为综合型时，对外直接投资对全要素生产率的提升作用最为明显。同时，环境规制通过研发创新影响企业全要素生产率，且与企业生产率之间呈现“倒U形”关系，证实了“波特假说”的存在。
,AbstractEN:This paper builds simultaneous equations containing Probit model，using micro-data from China’s industrial enterprises database，to inspect that promotion of enterprise’s total factor productivity derives from self-selected effect or learning effect of OFDI under the background of innovation，and according to difference of investment location and foreign direct investment types，this paper makes a robustness test to the empirical results. Results showed that self-selection effect and learning effect of OFDI are significant，and learning effect is dominant；when investment location lies the developed countries （regions）and the type of OFDI is diversified，promotion effect of OFDI on total factor productivity is the most obvious. At the same time，environmental regulation affect the enterprise’s total factor productivity through innovation，presenting the inverted-U relationship between environmental regulation and productivity，confirming the existence of “Porter Hypothesis”.
,KeyWords:2833,5292,406603,EKeyWords:31764,5296,406604,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10910215,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190501X20185595001_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-06-05 09:14:51.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:46:43.0,HitCount:27,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10910225,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:{"齐亚伟":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"齐亚伟（1984- ），女，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所博士后，江西财经大学副教授，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为数量经济在绿色技术创新领域的应用。
"},"Qi Yawei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国企业对外直接投资的自我选择效应与学习效应,ISBN:978-7-5201-4478-0,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国企业对外直接投资的自我选择效应与学习效应,_RowNo:8东亚国家在经济发展起飞阶段伴随有严重的腐败问题。理论上腐败对经济增长具有严重的破坏作用，经验上证实腐败对经济发展抑制效应的存在性是必然的。本文以2000～2015年中国31个省份数据为样本，在对腐败进行量化分析的基础上，采用面板分位数回归方法实证检验腐败对区域经济发展的抑制效应；通过建立经济发展水平和经济增长速度两个方程，分别检验发现腐败对经济发展水平和经济增长速度的抑制效应均显著，且抑制效应在经济发展水平越高和经济增长速度越快的地区表现得越强。最后，结合我国实际，提出深刻认识腐败对经济发展的巨大危害，进一步加大反腐败斗争力度的对策建议。
,AbstractEN:Corruption is an important problem faced with East Asian country. The inhibition effect of corruption on economic development has always been one of hotspot issues in political science and economics. We empirically analyzes the impact of corruption on China’s regional economic development by using panel quantile regression，based on the date of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2015 and the quantitative analysis of corruption indicators. From the two aspects of regional economic development level and economic growth，we find that corruption has a significant inhibitory effect on economic development，and the inhibitory effect is stronger in regions with higher level of economic development and faster economic growth. Finally，we make some suggestions combined with our experience of anti-corruption and the new changes in the form of corruption，such as recognizing the harm of corruption to economic development，and strengthen the anti-corruption further.
,KeyWords:487540,5194,487541,EKeyWords:498942,5295,487543,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10910228,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190501X20185595001_000_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-06-05 09:14:52.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:46:43.0,HitCount:7,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10910232,DownCount:2,AuthorInfos:{"杨东亮":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"杨东亮（1980- ），男，吉林大学东北亚研究院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为区域经济学。
"},"李朋骜":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"李朋骜（1990- ），男，吉林大学东北亚研究院博士研究生，主要研究方向为区域经济学。
"},"史庆峰":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"史庆峰（1976- ），男，吉林大学商学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为数量经济学。
"},"Yang Dongliang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Li Pengao":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Shi Qingfeng":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:腐败对中国经济发展的抑制效应研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-4478-0,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:腐败对中国经济发展的抑制效应研究,_RowNo:9利用1992～2016年中国对138个国家的进出口贸易额、2003～2011年中国对97个国家的直接投资额以及2001～2011年中国吸收60个国家的直接投资额等相关数据，采用合成控制法，分析评估了中智自由贸易协定对中智间商品贸易和投资所产生的效应，并使用“安慰剂检验”和敏感性分析就结论的稳健性进行分析，最终得出了以下结论：中智自由贸易协定促进了中智间商品贸易的发展，存在贸易创造效应；中智自由贸易协定对中国向智利的直接投资影响不显著，对中国吸收智利的直接投资产生了负向抑制作用。
,AbstractEN:This article collects China’s import and export data of 138 countries from 1992 to 2016，China’s direct investment in 97 countries from 2003 to 2011，and China’s actual foreign investment in 60 countries from 2001 to 2011. The article uses the synthetic control method to analyze and evaluate the effects of the free trade agreement on the trade and investment between China and Chile and uses the “placebo test” and sensitivity analysis. Finally，we got the following conclusion：China-Chile Free Trade Agreement promoted the development of commodity trade. There is a trade creation effect of FTA，the FTA has no significant effect on OFDI and negative impact on IFDI.
,KeyWords:392493,45783,34995,EKeyWords:498954,45785,4141,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10910243,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190501X20185595001_000_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-06-05 09:14:52.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:46:43.0,HitCount:12,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10910253,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:{"武娜":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"武娜（1977- ），女，天津财经大学经济学院副教授，主要研究方向为世界经济。
"},"王群勇":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王群勇（1976- ），男，南开大学经济学院教授，主要研究方向为理论与应用计量经济学。
"},"王嘉":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王嘉（1993- ），女，南开大学经济学院数量经济研究所硕士研究生，主要研究方向为计量经济理论及应用。
"},"Wu Na":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wang Qunyong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wang Jia":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中智FTA贸易与投资创造效应,ISBN:978-7-5201-4478-0,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中智FTA贸易与投资创造效应,_RowNo:10近年来我国金融业“脱实向虚”的趋势愈演愈烈，如何引导金融服务实体经济成了一个亟待解决的问题。本文通过TVP-SV-VAR模型研究了信贷扩张、房价波动与经济增长之间的时变关联机制。研究结果显示，信贷规模的快速扩张会打破房价与经济增长之间的均衡关系，阻塞房地产市场向实体经济发展的传导渠道。同时，相比于信贷平稳发展时期，大规模的银行信贷扩张对宏观经济的推动作用有限。为此，政府应当保持信贷规模与经济发展水平相适应，控制信贷增速在合理范围内，更好地引导金融发展为实体经济服务。
,AbstractEN:In recent years，the trend of the financial industry’s “shift from real economy to virtual economy” has intensified，and how to guide the financial service real economy has become an urgent problem to be solved. This paper studies the dynamic correlation mechanism between credit expansion，house price fluctuation and economic growth through TVP-SV-VAR model. The results show that too rapid growth in credit can break the balance between house prices and economic growth，and block the transmission of house prices to the real economy. At the same time，compared with the stable development of credit，large-scale bank credit expansion has limited effect on macroeconomy. Therefore，the government should keep the credit scale and economic development level，control the credit growth rate within a reasonable scope，and guide financial development to serve the real economy.
,KeyWords:31203,97083,5194,EKeyWords:60358,167045,5295,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10910262,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190501X20185595001_000_008,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-06-05 09:14:53.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:46:43.0,HitCount:13,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10910272,DownCount:5,AuthorInfos:{"刘金全":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘金全（1964- ），男，吉林大学数量经济研究中心教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为宏观经济计量分析。
"},"孙玉祥":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"孙玉祥（1969- ），男，吉林大学商学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为宏观经济计量分析。
"},"毕振豫":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"毕振豫（1992- ），男，吉林大学商学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为宏观经济计量分析。
"},"Liu Jinquan":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Sun Yuxiang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Bi Zhenyu":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:信贷扩张、房价波动与经济增长的时变关联机制研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-4478-0,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:信贷扩张、房价波动与经济增长的时变关联机制研究,_RowNo:11本文采用中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）2013年数据，运用OLS回归、分位数回归及Cohort分析法对中国收入代际传递性别差异进行分析。研究结论如下。（1）收入代际传递存在性别差异，即男性代际收入弹性小于女性，且随着分位数的提高，男性代际传递呈下降趋势，女性呈倒U形趋势。另外，不同的出生年代代际传递变化规律也不同，20世纪30年代出生的子代受到的影响不显著，而随着出生年代的递增，男性的代际传递呈现U形趋势，女性代际传递呈现N形趋势。（2）子代收入与父代收入处于同一等级时收入代际的传递性更强。（3）父母收入以及自身受教育年限仍是影响性别收入差距的重要因素。
,AbstractEN:Based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study （CHARLS） data in 2013，this paper uses OLS regression，quantile regression and Cohort analysis to analyze the gender differences in the intergenerational transmission of income in China. The results are as follows.（1）There are gender differences in intergenerational income transmission，that is，the male intergenerational income elasticity is less than that of female. With the increase of quantile，the intergenerational transmission of male is decreasing，and the female is inversely U-shaped. In addition，the rules of intergenerational transmission in different ages of birth were also different. The influence of offspring born in the 1930s was not significant. As the age of birth goes on，the intergenerational transmission of males showed a U-shaped trend，while the trend of female intergenerational transmission is N-type.（2）When the children’s income is in the same level as the parent’s income，the income transmission between the children and the parents is stronger.（3）Parents’ income and their educational years are still the important factors that influence the gender income gap.
,KeyWords:328252,35363,487549,EKeyWords:358280,38057,487550,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10910278,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190501X20185595001_000_009,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-06-05 09:14:53.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:46:43.0,HitCount:15,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10910287,DownCount:15,AuthorInfos:{"杜凤莲":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"杜凤莲（1971- ），女，内蒙古大学经济管理学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为劳动经济学。
"},"赵云霞":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"赵云霞（1993- ），女，内蒙古大学经济管理学院硕士研究生，主要研究方向为劳动经济学。
"},"任帅":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"任帅（1994- ），男，内蒙古大学经济管理学院硕士研究生，主要研究方向为民族经济学。
"},"韩志敏":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"韩志敏（1993- ），女，内蒙古大学经济管理学院硕士研究生，主要研究方向为劳动经济学。
"},"Du Fenglian":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhao Yunxia":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Ren Shuai":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Han Zhimin":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:收入代际传递性别差异,ISBN:978-7-5201-4478-0,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:收入代际传递性别差异,_RowNo:12网络大数据越来越多地被应用到经济问题的分析中。本文利用网民关注行为的大数据结合机器学习中的神经网络模型对北京市房价走势进行预测和分析。研究表明，利用网络搜索大数据的及时性、高频率优势和神经网络模型拟合复杂变量间关系的能力，能实现对房价走势的高精度预测，并且能够极大地提高预测房价走势中“拐点”的成功率。
,AbstractEN:More and more web search big data is being applied to the analysis of economic problems. This paper combines the web big data of netizens and the neural network model in machine learning to predict and analyze the trend of Beijing house prices. The result shows that combining timeliness and high granularity of online search big data and the ability of neural network models to fit complex relationships between variables can achieve high-precision prediction of housing price trends and capture the inflection point in house price fluctuations.
,KeyWords:312383,29394,305337,EKeyWords:498998,31887,487552,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10910294,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190501X20185595001_000_010,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-06-05 09:14:53.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:46:43.0,HitCount:12,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10910310,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"王岱":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王岱（1984- ），女，东北财经大学公共管理学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为区域经济学。
"},"刘宽斌":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘宽斌（1987- ），男，中国社会科学院大学博士研究生，主要研究方向为数量经济模型、大数据、宏观经济。
"},"张涛":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"张涛（1973- ），男，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所研究员，博士，主要研究方向为数量经济模型、宏观经济。
"},"Wang Dai":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Kuanbin":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhang Tao":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:基于网民关注行为大数据实现对房地产价格的预测研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-4478-0,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷 第2期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:基于网民关注行为大数据实现对房地产价格的预测研究,_RowNo:13
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