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2020年世界经济形势分析与预测

书 名: 2020年世界经济形势分析与预测
英 文 名: WORLD ECONOMY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST (2020)
作 者:  张宇燕 孙杰 姚枝仲
I S B N: 978-7-5201-5842-8
丛 书 名: 世界经济黄皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  国际贸易 国际金融 国际投资 大宗商品市场 全球债务
出版日期: 2020-01-01

中文摘要

2019年世界经济增速比上一年明显下降,大多数国家出现了经济增速回落和通货膨胀率下降,但全球失业率仍然保持在低位。世界经济还表现出国际贸易负增长、国际直接投资活动持续低迷、全球债务水平再次提高等特征。

未来世界经济发展在很大程度上受以下几个因素的影响,包括:美国经济是否陷入衰退,利率下限环境中货币宽松政策的效果,贸易摩擦的演变和国际经济规则的调整趋势。此外,金融市场动荡、地缘政治冲突以及部分国家国内政治冲突还可能会给世界经济带来不稳定风险。

预计2020年世界经济按PPP计算的增长率约为2.9%,按市场汇率计算的增长率约为2.6%,均比2019年下降0.1个百分点。预计2020年世界经济进一步下行的主要理由是:美、日、欧等主要发达经济体在2020年仍有经济下行趋势,货币宽松政策难以有效刺激经济回升;中国经济可能趋于稳定,但是增速有进一步放缓的迹象;其他经济体受这些主要经济体增速放缓影响,难以实现增速强劲回升。

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