中亚国家发展报告（2020）
书 名： 中亚国家发展报告（2020）
英 文 名： ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL ASIA （2020）
作 者： 孙力 肖斌 杨进
I S B N： 978-7-5201-6322-4
丛 书 名：
中亚黄皮书
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关 键 词： 地区形势 国别形势 国家形势 国际关系 中亚地区
出版日期： 2020-03-01
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中文摘要
本报告由中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所和中国社会科学院上海合作组织研究中心组织编写。作者是来自中国中亚问题研究机构的专家和学者，书中的见解和理论具有较高的权威性和可靠性，是读者了解和研究中亚及南高加索地区、国家形势与国际关系的重要参考资料。报告由六个部分组成，即总报告、地区形势、地区专题、中亚与世界、中国与中亚、国别形势。
本年度报告的主题是“寻求创新合作新动力”。具体内容体现以下特点。一是具有鲜明的时代特色。在大国关系深刻调整的背景下，中亚地区和国家也随之而动，出现了诸多新变化：国内政治权力转移出现了新形式、政治权力过渡出现了新问题；第四次工业革命及其衍生的数字经济已成为中亚国家谋求发展的新动力；大国不断在中亚地区投入更多的战略资源。二是具有较强的学理性。在倡导科学研究方法的同时，还注重借鉴政治学、经济学、社会学、管理学等学科的科学方法，努力构建中亚学科的知识体系，促进我国中亚学科体系不断走向成熟。三是突出地区特色。在积极融入国际体系的同时，中亚地区及国家还释放出诸多独特的地区符号：权力结构出现“三套车”；纳乌鲁斯节的政治和文化双重属性显著；安全威胁碎片化、多元化和跨国化现象相互叠加等。
回顾2019年，中亚地区和国家继续保持基本稳定的发展态势。但是，中亚国家长期积累的问题并没有得到有效解决。削弱中亚国家政治稳定性的要素活跃；受全球经济增长全面放缓的影响，中亚国家经济下行风险压力较大；中亚国家出台了一系列保民生、促发展的经济政策；阿富汗问题不断“外溢”，中亚安全形势不容乐观；美国在中亚地区大力打造支点国家，大国在中亚地区和国家的博弈更趋激烈。
展望2020年，中亚地区总体上继续保持稳定发展。然而，进入选举年的中亚国家都将面临政治稳定性的考验；经济发展和民生问题仍然是中亚国家关注的重点；阿富汗武装分子将会对地区稳定造成更多的负面影响；“C5+1”对话机制将成为中亚国家平衡大国关系的主要工具；地区一体化取得突破进展的可能性不大。在百年之未有的大变局中，中亚地区和国家将面临更多的机遇和挑战。
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