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叙利亚发展报告(2019)

书 名: 叙利亚发展报告(2019)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF SYRIA (2019)
作 者: 王新刚王晋
I S B N: 978-7-5201-6315-6
丛 书 名: 叙利亚蓝皮书
关 键 词:  经济发展 社会发展 政治形势 叙利亚
出版日期: 2020-03-01

中文摘要

《叙利亚发展报告(2019)》对叙利亚形势做了全面、系统的分析,报告认为,2018年是叙利亚问题的关键一年。第一,叙利亚战场形势发生了进一步变化,叙利亚政府军在叙利亚中部、南部和北部发动大规模反攻,收复了大片土地,将叙利亚反对派武装压缩在西北部的伊德利卜省;第二,叙利亚经济重建开始缓慢展开,俄罗斯和伊朗开始在港口营运、道路和电力建设、石油和矿产开发、农产品进出口等领域,探索与叙利亚加强合作的可能性;第三,叙利亚政治重建进程开始缓慢推动,俄罗斯和联合国叙利亚问题特使共同在叙利亚问题索契和平进程上,鼓励建立“叙利亚宪法委员会”,希望通过编撰新的叙利亚宪法,推动叙利亚各个政治派别与叙利亚政府之间的和解;第四,土耳其加大了在叙利亚北部的介入力度,在2018年初发动了针对叙利亚北部幼发拉底河以西地区库尔德武装团体的军事攻击,并且通过与俄罗斯达成在伊德利卜省周边建立“缓冲区”的协议,来保护土耳其支持的叙利亚反政府武装;第五,美国等西方大国仍然继续保留了在叙利亚北部幼发拉底河以东叙利亚库尔德人控制区的驻军,希望能够继续保留在叙利亚问题上的话语权。

然而,叙利亚问题仍然面临诸多挑战和困难。首先,爆发军事冲突的风险仍然存在,叙利亚政府军和反政府武装在伊德利卜的冲突仍随时可能爆发;伊朗主导的驻叙利亚境内的什叶派武装团体,与以色列爆发军事冲突的风险仍不可忽视;土耳其依旧跃跃欲试,力图在叙利亚北部建立“缓冲区”,彻底剿灭叙利亚北部的库尔德人武装团体。其次,政治和解进程仍然分歧严重,叙利亚政府在与叙利亚反对派政治团体对话的问题上仍然持保留态度,而叙利亚反政府政治团体依旧要求以叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德下台为政治和解的先决条件,“叙利亚宪法委员会”的组成仍存在障碍;经济上,叙利亚经济重建需要大量资金和外部援助,而鉴于叙利亚政府财力有限,叙利亚社会经历多年战火而民生凋敝,西方国家多次表示不会支持叙利亚政府主导的经济重建进程,未来叙利亚经济重建必然步履蹒跚。

在新的形势下,中国应当继续坚定地尊重和支持叙利亚主权和领土完整,在劝和促谈的过程中发挥重要的建设性作用,同时在叙利亚经济重建进程中发挥力所能及的作用,审慎地规避重建的风险,扎扎实实地与叙利亚共同推动“一带一路”建设。

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