2009年辽宁经济社会形势分析与预测
中文摘要
本报告以辽宁社会科学院从事经济学、金融学、社会学、政治学、文化学和省情研究的学者为主，并邀请了辽宁省省直有关部门以及大专院校的专家学者参加，经过深入调查研究后撰写。
本报告以党的十七大和十七届三中全会精神为指导，客观描述了2008年辽宁省全面落实科学发展观，努力构建社会主义和谐社会，推进辽宁老工业基地全面振兴所取得的巨大成就；深刻分析当前存在的困难和问题，特别是世界金融危机所带来的深刻影响；对2009年辽宁面临的机遇和挑战、经济社会形势发展的趋势进行分析和预测，并提出相应的对策建议。
报告指出，2008年，辽宁省面对国内外复杂经济环境的严峻考验，科学判断经济社会发展形势，努力克服经济发展中不确定和不利因素增多的影响，着力优化经济结构，转变经济发展方式，提高经济运行质量和效益，坚持把推进经济平稳较快发展同改善民生紧密结合起来，注重中低收入群体收入提高和生活改善，全省经济社会总体呈现出增长较快、质量较好、结构优化、民生改善的局面。进入四季度以来，尽管国际金融危机给辽宁的经济增长、就业、企业效益等方面带来了一些负面影响，但从主要经济指标在去年较高增幅的基础上，仍然继续保持平稳较快增长。辽宁的GDP、全社会固定资产投资、出口总额、进口总额、社会消费品零售总额、城镇居民收入、农村居民人均现金收入、第二产业增加值、财政收入等9项指标增长速度均高于全国平均水平；全社会固定资产投资、出口、进口、社会消费品零售总额、城镇居民收入、农村居民人均纯收入等6项指标增长速度高于2007年同期水平。
报告还指出，2008年经济社会发展中也还存在一些亟待解决的矛盾和问题。诸如辽宁经济社会发展中面临的结构性调整任务仍然艰巨，同时经济社会运行中还要面临不断出现的新矛盾和新问题。如产业结构中工业的主导地位继续强化，而服务业占地区生产总值的比重仍显薄弱；经济发展仍主要靠新建项目拉动，投资效率和投资的就业带动效应还亟待提高；农业生产资料价格涨幅较大，农民增收难度加大；农村消费服务设施薄弱，农村消费水平有待提高；就业压力仍然较大，就业稳定问题不容忽视等。报告针对上述问题，提出了一些具体对策和建议。
本报告认为，辽宁经济的需求结构以投资需求为主导、最终需求为支撑、净流出为补充的经济发展格局一定时期内不会发生大的改变。因为地域和产业结构特点，辽宁作为以内需为主的省份，全球经济动荡对地区产业经济的减速影响的显现要滞后于外需比例较大的省份。特别是2008年国家宏观经济政策灵活调整的频率较大，紧缩性经济政策和扩张型经济政策要经过一定的交织作用期才能体现出最终的政策效果，因此2009年辽宁经济增速也将经历小幅放缓的过程。国家全力促进宏观经济平稳发展的信号和措施，也将对辽宁支柱行业骨干企业面临的经营困难起到重要的缓解作用。在居民收入水平不断提高的条件下，市场消费有可能出现平稳缓升的发展态势。由于已明确提出确保2009年全社会固定资产投资达到1.3万亿元的目标，预计，2009年辽宁固定资产投资增幅将达到30%左右，GDP增速将运行于10%～12%的区间。
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总报告
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经济篇
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社会篇
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文化篇
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资源环境篇
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