中国财政政策报告（2020）
书 名： 中国财政政策报告（2020）
英 文 名： ANNUAL REPORT ON FISCAL POLICY OF CHINA （2020）
作 者： 刘尚希
I S B N： 978-7-5201-7219-6
丛 书 名：
财政蓝皮书
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关 键 词： 财政政策 国家治理 国家发展 政策评估 财政管理
出版日期： 2020-09-01
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中文摘要
本报告关注2019年中国财政政策与宏观经济的运行特点，在回顾2019年财政政策的同时对2020年的财政政策进行展望，并对财政与国家发展、政策评估、财政管理等热点问题分别进行探讨。
2019年，中国经济社会运行的外部环境复杂多变，内部经济下行压力不减。经济面临短期内的总需求不足，投资、出口、消费均面临一定压力。本报告通过构建ARMA模型，对2020年及“十四五”时期经济社会形势和财政收支进行预测。经济形势预测结果显示，受疫情冲击，2020年GDP增速可能在2.3%～3.0%，“十四五”期间GDP增速总体将处于5%～6%区间，经济结构进一步优化。财政收支预测结果显示，2020年一般公共预算收入前低后高，全年增速或与2019年持平，“十四五”期间增速可能进一步放缓。2020年财政支出增速或较2019年放缓，整个“十四五”期间财政支出仍面临较大压力。优化支出结构、注重资金使用效率将更为重要。
2019年，我国积极的财政政策以“加力提效”为基本特征，聚焦稳预期、稳增长、稳就业、防风险的政策目标，持续聚焦全面深化改革的要求，着力于三大攻坚战等关键任务的实现。2020年积极的财政政策要大力提质增效，更加积极有为，“提质”是关键词。财政政策“提质”，其内涵和要领可考虑从以下几个方面把握：在政策导向上，转向公共风险管理，财政政策重在向经济、社会等各领域注入确定性，同时权衡公共风险和财政风险的管理；在政策目标上，以改善就业状态为首要目标，兼顾多重目标；在政策目标主体上，从注重物转向更注重人；在政策实施主体上，更加注重政策实施主体的行为一致性，更加强调打好政策组合拳，提高宏观政策的协调性。
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