拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告（2019～2020）
书 名： 拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告（2019～2020）
英 文 名： ANNUAL REPORT ON LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN （2019-2020）
作 者： 袁东振 刘维广
I S B N： 978-7-5201-7273-8
丛 书 名：
拉美黄皮书
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关 键 词： 社会发展 经济体制改革 拉丁美洲 西印度群岛
出版日期： 2020-10-01
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中文摘要
《拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告（2019～2020）》旨在系统分析2019～2020年拉丁美洲和加勒比地区经济增长、政治生态、社会环境和国际关系形势的变化，总结和思考主要拉美国家发展中出现的新问题、新趋势，并在此基础上梳理中拉合作取得的进展及面临的新挑战。
2019年，拉丁美洲和加勒比地区经济表现低迷。受世界经济增长放缓、全球贸易局势紧张以及地区内部政局不稳与社会抗议交织的叠加影响，拉美地区经济增长几乎停滞。尽管地区通胀保持在低位、“双赤字”趋势有所缓解，但公共债务高企、货币波动加剧以及社会风险的积累使经济发展的不确定性增加。地区国家的经济情况因受外部影响机制不同以及国内应对能力相异而存在差异。
地区政治格局整体呈现“左”“右”互有进退之势，但右翼掌握了地区政治的主导权。整体上，传统政党持续衰落，新兴政党不断崛起，暂时缺少能够凝聚共识、指引发展方向的主导性政治力量。由于经济低迷和民众对经济预期的担忧以及对政府和传统政治家的不信任，厄瓜多尔、智利、哥伦比亚、玻利维亚等国爆发了大规模抗议活动，严重危害政治稳定。
在社会发展领域，拉美的各项社会指标进一步恶化，社会发展面临倒退风险，社会不稳定因素增加。贫困人口数量不断增加、失业规模持续扩大、收入不平等的改善速度放缓、经济下行、国家治理能力的欠缺和对民生诉求的懈怠等因素均在一定程度上加剧了社会危机的蔓延。移民问题愈演愈烈，成为地区性议题。各国均出现了不同程度的排外倾向。
由于执政者政治立场的差异等因素，拉美地区国际关系格局整体呈现分化重组之势。拉美尤其是南美地区的地缘政治格局正在发生逆转，地区大国对外政策出现重大调整，地区意识形态呈现出多样性甚至两极化，地区合作议程出现新的分化组合。美国对拉美事务的介入持续加大，大国博弈在该地区呈现升级之势。中拉关系在变局中企稳，中拉贸易出现新的国别差异性特征，经贸合作多样性凸显。
展望2020年，拉美国家的政治、经济、社会与国际关系形势仍将带有显著的脆弱性和不确定性。拉美经济复苏动能不足，短期内外部因素无法取得实质性改善，新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情加剧拉美经济下滑态势，下行幅度取决于疫情在国际上的扩散程度与各国的防控情况。2020年，秘鲁、玻利维亚等国家的选举、智利的全民公决以及美国制裁下的委内瑞拉和古巴政局值得关注。
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