山东经济形势分析与预测（2020）
书 名： 山东经济形势分析与预测（2020）
英 文 名： THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF SHANDONG’S ECONOMY （2020）
作 者： 李广杰 刘晓宁 袁爱芝
I S B N： 978-7-5201-7382-7
丛 书 名：
山东蓝皮书
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关 键 词： 区域经济 经济分析 经济预测 山东
出版日期： 2020-10-01
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中文摘要
《山东经济形势分析与预测（2020）》由山东社会科学院从事经济研究的专家、学者以及省内有关政府部门、高等院校的专家、学者经过深入调查研究撰写而成。全书由总报告、产业发展与专题分析篇、区域发展与对外开放篇、典型分析篇4个部分共20篇报告组成。
本书运用定量分析与定性分析相结合、调查研究与统计分析相结合等研究方法，对2019年山东省经济发展态势和经济运行中存在的问题进行了深入分析，并结合国内外经济形势对2020年山东省经济走势进行了预测，提出对策建议；同时，对山东省制造业、服务业、康养产业、海洋经济、乡村振兴、中小企业等领域进行了专题分析，对山东省沿黄生态保护和高质量发展、融入京津冀和雄安新区建设、海关特殊监管区发展、对外贸易、深化与日韩贸易合作、与韩国双向投资合作等问题进行了深入研究，对青岛、烟台、东营、潍坊等典型地区的自贸试验区建设、利用外资、城市转型、一体化发展等问题进行了分析探讨。
2019年，面对复杂多变的国内外宏观经济形势，山东省加速推进供给侧结构性改革和新旧动能转换，深化新一轮改革开放，经济运行总体符合预期，经济发展质量继续提升，全年生产总值增长5.5%，保持在合理区间。但是，山东省经济运行仍面临一些突出矛盾和问题，经济下行压力进一步加大。
展望2020年，世界经济将维持弱增长态势，且在新冠肺炎疫情的影响下不确定性进一步加大；中国经济韧性强、回旋余地大，增长有望继续保持在合理区间，但也存在下行压力。山东省应继续以高质量发展为目标，采取积极措施对冲疫情影响，以新旧动能转换、乡村振兴、海洋强省、三大攻坚战、军民融合、打造对外开放新高地、区域协调发展、重大基础设施建设等八大发展战略为重点，统筹推进稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生、防风险工作，保持经济运行在合理区间。2020年，预计山东省GDP增速在4.0%左右，固定资产投资有望企稳回升，消费和出口有望保持平稳增长，居民消费价格涨幅在3.5%左右。
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