中东发展报告No.23（2020～2021）
| 书 名： |
中东发展报告No.23（2020～2021） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST No.23 （2020-2021）
|
| 作 者： |
王林聪 王建 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5201-9172-2 |
| 丛 书 名： |
中东黄皮书
订阅
|
| 关 键 词： |
社会发展 新冠肺炎 中东局势 中东战略 |
| 出版日期： |
2021-10-01 |
中文摘要
2020年，中东十年剧变和世纪疫情叠加，加之域外大国对中东战略的调整，深刻影响着中东国家的发展进程和中东地区局势的演变。一方面，新冠肺炎疫情大流行不仅加剧地区国家政治、经济和社会危机，而且在一定程度上改变了中东国家经济形势、社会生态和治理方式，也凸显了地区公共卫生安全问题。另一方面，伴随美国在中东地区的战略收缩，中东地区秩序重塑步伐加快，中东地区国家间关系进入全面调整期。
首先，中东国家经济遭受疫情和低油价双重冲击，经济增长大幅萎缩，通货膨胀攀升，政府财政收入减少、债务增加，外国直接投资和侨汇流入下降，这些导致失业和贫困人口大幅增加。疫情也催生了中东数字经济，成为经济发展的新亮点。但是，中东国家经济走出低谷仍面临诸多挑战。
其次，受疫情影响，加强对社会控制的强政府治理模式普遍化。但是，随着疫情持续和蔓延，中东国家发展不足、治理不善等问题凸显，治理危机进一步加深，社会问题尖锐，阿尔及利亚、突尼斯、黎巴嫩、约旦等国家爆发民众抗议运动，给中东国家政治稳定带来新的冲击。
再次，大国对中东战略的调整以及地区国家间关系的重构成为中东地区最突出的变量。美国加快中东战略收缩步伐，中东在美国全球战略中的地位日趋下降，但美国为维护其霸权利益，仍保持“撤而不离”的态势。俄罗斯以叙利亚问题为抓手，“以点带面”继续提高其在中东地区的影响力。欧盟斡旋中东地区热点问题的能力下降，但仍寻求扩大其影响力。中国与中东国家携手抗疫，合作水平不断提高，为践行真正的多边主义树立了典范；中国提出中东安全五点倡议，反响良好，中国在中东地区的建设性作用日益明显。
此外，中东地区热点问题反弹升温，地缘政治较量趋于激烈，安全形势严峻。阿联酋、巴林、苏丹、摩洛哥四个阿拉伯国家与以色列建交，深刻改变和影响着阿以关系和地区格局。但是，新一轮巴以激烈冲突表明巴勒斯坦问题仍然是中东地区动荡的根源问题，其解决前景堪忧。叙利亚、利比亚和也门的武装冲突烈度有所下降，但是政治和解进程步履维艰。伴随美国撤军行动，阿富汗政局发生剧变，塔利班重掌政权，对中东地区局势产生重要影响。与此同时，“基地”组织、“伊斯兰国”恐怖主义袭击频频发生，恐怖组织对地区安全的威胁上升。粮食安全、气候变化和水资源问题严峻，非传统安全问题仍在威胁地区的稳定和发展。
总之，新冠肺炎疫情持续和美国的中东政策调整引起的连锁效应，势必增加中东地区局势的变数，推升了中东局势的不确定性。在此背景下，地区诸强重启对话，谋求缓和紧张关系，维护自身安全，中东地区格局和国家间关系进入全面调整期。从长远看，重视中东地区安全和发展，加强危机管理，特别是推动构建包容性区域安全对话机制，将给动荡的中东地区迈向和平与稳定带来新的希望。
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