阿拉伯发展报告（2021）
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中文摘要
2021年正好是“阿拉伯之春”十周年。本年度黄皮书的核心主题就是对“阿拉伯之春”进行系统的回顾与反思。“阿拉伯之春”是阿拉伯国家各种弊病长期累积的结果，也是中东国家探索复兴之路的新尝试。然而，“阿拉伯之春”十年来，阿拉伯世界非但未能走出逆境，反而陷入更加深重的灾难。从国内局势看，阿拉伯国家始终未找到适合自己的发展道路，阿拉伯国家的极度迷茫与经济困境形成恶性循环。从地区格局看，阿拉伯国家地区影响力明显下降，非阿拉伯国家首次成为地缘博弈主角；地区主义矛盾从阿以矛盾转向伊朗问题；地区认同危机空前加剧；外部干涉门槛空前降低。尤其在2020年新冠肺炎疫情蔓延的冲击下，中东经济更加困难，并可能酝酿着新一轮的政治动荡。阿拉伯世界之所以深陷困境，除了外部干涉因素外，主要原因就是阿拉伯国家“看到了病症，开错了药方”。当初这些国家矛盾激化的主要症结是当权者出台了违背民众利益的政策，但“阿拉伯之春”后各国却误将集权政体当成问题症结，并将“民主转型”作为纾解困境的方法，最终因无效民主造成无效治理。未来，阿拉伯国家要想摆脱困境需要克服多重挑战。
《阿拉伯发展报告（2021）》主要分为六个部分。第一部分是总报告，主要探讨“阿拉伯之春”十年来阿拉伯国家的政治经济处境、地区博弈态势、美国中东政策等主要问题。第二部分是国别报告，主要对埃及、利比亚、突尼斯、阿尔及利亚、沙特、叙利亚、伊拉克等国年度形势进行了评估。第三部分是专题报告，主要围绕低油价下的阿拉伯油气市场、巴以问题、伊朗在阿拉伯世界影响扩大态势、海湾地区的非伊朗系什叶派力量发展变化等问题进行深入分析。第四部分是中东与世界，主要探讨美国、欧盟、俄罗斯在中东问题上的博弈态势。第五部分是中阿关系，主要介绍中东经济形势和中阿经贸新格局发展态势。第六部分是附录，主要介绍中东地区智库发展态势和阿拉伯国家大事记。
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国别报告
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专题报告
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中东与世界
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中阿关系
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附录
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