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法国发展报告(2022)

书 名: 法国发展报告(2022)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRENCH REPUBLIC (2022)
作 者:  丁一凡 戴冬梅
I S B N: 978-7-5228-0648-8
丛 书 名: 法国蓝皮书
关 键 词:  经济发展 社会发展 研究报告 法国 2022
出版日期: 2022-11-01

中文摘要

2021年,法国的政治、经济和社会治理模式继续遭遇严峻的内部和外部挑战。与此同时,法国精英在应对上展示了一定的韧性和活力。

法国政治生态的多极化趋势更加明确,传统的精英治国模式疲态尽显。从2022年总统大选第一轮结果看,相对于2017年,马克龙的支持率下降,以勒庞为首的极右翼和以梅朗雄为首的极左翼上升势头明显。“政坛黑马”泽穆尔表现亮眼。两大传统党派共和党与社会党进一步式微。法国为宗教极端势力和其他极端思潮提供了土壤。激进化趋势造成反恐难度增大。但马克龙最终成功连任表明,维护政局和政策的稳定性和可预测性,是法国新老精英的不二选择。

经济社会层面,马克龙政府积极回应民众诉求,稳妥推进各项改革议程,并有力应对新冠疫情冲击。虽然有些经济痼疾并未得到根本缓解,但法国经济于2021年复苏明显。针对关键领域生产能力不足的情况,马克龙政府在法国振兴计划框架内明确提出要实施产业回迁。马克龙政府还在科技领域强化前瞻性规划和投入,发布人工智能国家发展战略,加大对人工智能发展的投入,推广人工智能技术在经济领域中的应用。法国政府很早就意识到科技创新和产业发展之间的紧密联系,另外同样积极弥补在数字教育上的短板。马克龙政府通过“法国文化振兴”计划扶助遭受疫情重挫的法国文化产业,同时在供给端与需求端发力扶持农业部门,后疫情时代的法国农业或将在生产模式、供给与需求结构方面发生转变。疫情时期,法国政府要求人们尽量选择居家远程办公,以降低新冠病毒传播的风险。

在对外政策上,法国继续全方位出击,维护其全球大国地位和影响力。以欧洲政策为主要着力点,马克龙积极推动欧洲战略自主,最大限度促进法国的地区和全球利益。在2021年初发布的《2021战略更新指南》中,马克龙政府呼吁欧洲持续加大防务安全投入,以免遭遇不可逆转的“战略降级”。在对俄关系上,马克龙发扬戴高乐将军的现实主义传统,谋求作为“平衡主义者”实现法国国家利益的最大化。在对非政策上,法国试图通过调整萨赫勒地区反恐政策和强化国际协作,维护法国的传统影响力。以法国国家科学研究中心为代表,法国同样高度重视对非科技外交。在亚太方向,法澳潜艇合同的“夭折”意味着法国“印太战略”和对美关系遭遇重挫。美国在亚太复制冷战剧本,或加剧法国对美依附化和欧洲对美附庸化。

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