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2023年四川经济形势分析与预测

书 名: 2023年四川经济形势分析与预测
英 文 名: ECONOMY OF SICHUAN ANALYSIS AND FORECAST (2023)
作 者:  蓝定香 达捷 陈映 陈妤
I S B N: 978-7-5228-1291-5
丛 书 名: 四川蓝皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  增长态势 经济恢复 新动能 四川省
出版日期: 2023-01-01

中文摘要

2022年,受疫情多发散发、极端高温天气、突发地震灾害、国内市场需求减弱、国际危机频发等多重不利因素叠加影响,四川经济增速自西部大开发战略实施以来首次低于全国平均水平,其他主要经济指标增速也明显放缓甚至大幅下降。但面对复杂严峻的国内外发展环境和特殊困难,四川坚持以高质量发展为主题,以稳增长为工作基调,以供给侧结构性改革为主线,持续做好“六稳”“六保”工作,发挥投资关键作用,推进新动能持续引领,在经济整体表现不佳的情况下,主要投资领域仍稳定增长,高技术产业、工业利润、新型消费和出口等保持较快增长,为四川经济回升注入了新动力。2022年前三季度,四川地区生产总值同比增长1.5%;第一、第二、第三产业分别同比增长3.6%、2%、0.7%;规模以上工业增加值同比增长2.4%;固定资产投资同比增长5.9%;社会消费品零售总额同比下降0.2%;货物贸易进出口总额同比增长9.8%;城镇居民、农村居民人均可支配收入分别同比增长5.1%、6.6%。

2023年,随着国内经济发展环境不断改善以及经济增长的持续恢复,四川有条件借助“一带一路”建设、成渝地区双城经济圈建设深入推进的契机,延续投资领域稳定增长态势,推动服务业显著回升,经济有望实现6%以上的增长,重回高于全国平均水平的运行轨道。规模以上工业增加值预计增长6%;固定资产投资增速将稳定在5%~6%区间;第一产业将保持稳定,第二、第三产业增速将明显高于2022年水平;社会消费品零售总额增长7%;进出口总额增速高于7%;城乡居民收入增长与GDP保持同步。

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