俄罗斯东欧中亚国家发展报告（2008）
| 书 名： |
俄罗斯东欧中亚国家发展报告（2008） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA，EAST EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA （2008）
|
| 作 者： |
中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所 邢广程 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5097-0162-1 |
| 丛 书 名： |
俄罗斯东欧中亚黄皮书
订阅
|
| 关 键 词： |
社会发展 俄罗斯 东欧 |
| 出版日期： |
2008-05-01 |
中文摘要
就俄罗斯东欧中亚国家的发展而言，2007年既是相对平稳的一年，也是暗流涌动的一年。种种迹象表明，俄罗斯外交正在转向强硬，一场凭借能源优势对抗西方技术优势的长期博弈似乎已悄然拉开了帷幕。
俄罗斯东欧中亚地区2007年的发展呈现以下特点：（1）经济快速、平稳发展，旧的问题有所缓解，但通胀反弹成为新问题；（2）政局尚不稳定，一批国家出现政治危机；（3）地区内部分合有度，各方都在积蓄力量，但矛盾爆发为期不远；（4）“科索沃问题”升级，东欧反导基地问题成为焦点；（5）俄罗斯加大抗争力度，以期改变对其不利的军事政治格局。
俄罗斯东欧中亚地区原是苏联势力范围。时至今日，俄罗斯与西方的关系仍然决定着独联体地区形势的走向，并影响着中东欧地区形势的发展。俄罗斯对西方政策的调整基于以下几个因素：首先，世界大国的定位是俄罗斯外交的动力源；其次，俄罗斯对于世界形势有了新的判断；第三，俄罗斯自身实力增强，并看好今后的发展；第四，俄罗斯对外部环境的要求有所降低。
从根本上讲，俄罗斯国际地位的提升主要靠能源——过去八年间其综合国力的提高依赖能源，能源成为其对外活动最有力也是最有效的武器，其未来的发展也以“高油价时代的到来”为前提。俄罗斯对西方政策转向强硬，从物质基础的角度讲，就是凭借能源优势对抗西方的技术优势。
对俄罗斯经济发展的最大挑战是如何实现从资源依赖型经济向创新型经济的转变。“赶超经济”仍是俄罗斯人对本国经济的定位，具体目标就是到2020年进入世界经济前五强，并在此过程中完成向创新型经济的转变。
俄罗斯发展模式开创于普京执政时期，并将随着普京继续活跃在俄罗斯政治舞台而延续下去。在国家的作用下，集中资源于发展的主要方向，确也可能推动国家战略目标的实现，或许能够达到“赶超”之目的。
总之，俄罗斯与西方的斗争不仅是能源优势与技术优势的对抗，同时也是俄罗斯发展模式与西方发展模式间的竞争。
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总论
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Introduction
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中俄、中国与中亚国家关系篇
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